Yeah. Weird.
While I believe that Biden is heavily favored, it is NOT in the bag for him.
One interesting factor I will point out.
The loony left was and is EXTREMELY butt hurt, not only that Sanders lost, but that a milquetoast moderate won. Will they turn out? Will they hold their breaths and turn blue (and more importantly stay home)?
Again, I think Biden is substantially favored, but he has to get at least a portion of the loonies to turn out, without putting off moderates.
Even professional campaign operatives will tell you there is no one on this planet who can predict the way the Florida Panhandle will vote and the way they vote carries Florida.
The places Biden has to win to carry the swing states aren’t those places though. Anyway Democrats always chase the youth vote and it never really turns out in a big enough way to affect elections. It’s what cost Bernie the primary, his demo didn’t turn out even with him on the precipice of winning the nomination.
Another bad Florida poll:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html
Florida: Biden +3(Fox)
Margins
Light 0-5%
Medium 6-10%
Dark 11%+
Comparing the turnout in 2018 and 2014 in the 18-29 and 30-44 age demographics, there was a double digit increase in the turnout for both of those age demographics in 2018.
AKA “Florida Man” 
And now Fox had Florida +3 Biden.
Again. Polls are just polls and we’re in April. But a lot of underlying stuff isn’t helpful for Trump so far compared to 2016. And that was razor thin.
Here is my election prediction for now:
Biden will win the nationwide popular vote by over three million votes.
Trump will win the Electoral College again, but by a much narrower margin. Biden will win all the states that Hillary won plus Arizona and Michigan. Trump will win 28 of the 30 states that he won in 2016.
Trump 275 electoral votes
Biden 263 electoral votes
This one’s mine. I think the odd one out is Minnesota… after all of this stuff recently, I think it flips. JMO of course, it’ll be fun to see. I wouldn’t be surprised to see VA flip as well after the gun control garbage there.
I think Trump needs to win both Florida and Pennsylvania or he loses. If he wins both he wins.
Te extrañe 
I don’t agree that 2016 was razor thin.
Trump won 306 to 232. For Hillary to have pulled the victory, she would have had to win at MINIMUM Pennsylvania and Michigan, plus picked off another 2 electoral votes somewhere. Let’s not forget that Gary Johnson pulled nearly 4% of the vote in each of those states and it doesn’t look like he’s running this time. Maybe I’m wrong but I think that bodes well for Trump.
Let’s do a fun comparison:
30 days out from 2016 election
Pennsylvania - Clinton 9.0%
Michigan - Clinton - 10.7%
Wisconsin - Clinton 6.8%
Results
Pennsylvania - Trump .7%
Michigan - Trump .3%
Wisconsin - Trump .7%
Today
Pennsylvania - Biden 5.7%
Michigan - Biden 3.4%
Wisconsin - Biden 3.4%
If the same pattern held, the results in those three states would be as follows:
Pennsylvania - Trump 6.4%
Michigan - Trump 3.7%
Wisconsin - Trump 4.1%
Now, I’m not suggesting it’s going to be a one for one conversion but I’d suggest that trusting the polls today is probably silly. Even the DAY before the election in those three states showed 2.6%, 3.7% and 7.2% differences in the election day poll. If I were on the left, I’d be terrified that Biden is polling less than half of Hillary’s lead in those three critical states.
Either way, November will be fun because the left is going to be freaking out if Trump wins a 2nd term… even more so than they are today. Think he was hard to get along with the first 4 years? Think of what he’s going to do the next 4 when he knows there’s no re-election coming.
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Close. Pennsy also goes biden and it’s
Biden 283
Trump 255
Trump refuses to concede and is MIA on Inauguration Day 2021.
He slinks out of the WH via helicopter ala Nixon.
Allan
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Funny how the refuse to concede stuff is yet another liberal projection. Hell, your side STILL hasn’t given up on 2016…
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Michigan Trump +0.23%
Wisconsin Trump +0.77%
Pennsylvania Trump +0.72%
That my friend is the epitome of razor thin.
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Who knows with this news cycle. If they debate, you can see Trump winning. I don’t think the economy bounces. To much fear in COVID spread leads to layoffs after grace period for PPP. That is a guarantee. Many businesses will find themselves struggling. Unemployment gets to 7-8 percent and levels. Thats my prediction.,
Biden’s trapped.
Trapped how?
Allan
