Did the US just lose a war on the first volley?

Cheap Iranian drones and missiles appear to have beaten expensive US and Israeli air defense back on April 13:

Theodore Postol, Professor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy at MIT, has provided a forensic analysis of the videos and evidence emerging from Iran’s 13th April swarm drone and missile “demonstration” attack into Israel: A “message,” rather than an “assault.” The leading Israeli daily, Yediot Ahoronot, has estimated the cost of attempting to down this Iranian flotilla at between $2-3 billion dollars. . . The fact that a very large number of unengaged ballistic missiles could be seen glowing as they reenter the atmosphere to lower altitudes [an indication of hyper-speed], indicates that whatever the effects of [Israel’s] David’s Sling and the Arrow missile defenses, they were not especially effective. Thus, the evidence at this point shows that essentially all or most of the arriving long-range ballistic missiles were not intercepted by any of the Israeli air and missile-defense systems.
The Interlocking of Strategic Paradigms - The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity

Now Axios is reporting that the US is delaying further shipments of ammunition to Israel.


Stocks of US weapons were already at extremely low levels before the Iran air raid as result of shipments to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel. Given US production capacities, replenishing the huge number of air-defense missiles used on April 13 could take several years, and throwing more money at the problem is unlikely to change that.

In addition, the Iranian attack showed that US and Israeli air defense were unable to stop even the small numbers of high-performance missiles used in the raid.

In a stunning role reversal, did Iran effectively expose US weakness with a single volley?

Is the blank check for military aid to Israel starting to bounce?

Where are the news articles showing the damage done to Israel if the defensive weapon system didn’t work as the OP states? The news I’ve read says it was 99% effective.



This piece from a professor smells like a propaganda piece.


Where did all those missiles land if they were not shot down?


Yeah there would be wide spread destruction and plenty of pictures of it in the news.


The Iranian attack was basically a shot across the bow:

  1. It demonstrated the capability of the Iranian forces to hit Israel without inflicting severe damage on Israel that could have provoked a major war. That fact that high-performance Iranian missiles were able to get through in spite of the advance warning and small numbers used shows that Iran is capable of destroying targets in Israel with impunity.

  2. The attack demonstrated that Iran would win a war of attrition. The massive number of cheap drones and missiles were intended serve as targets for US and Israeli air defense. The fact that the US ran through billions of dollars in missiles meant that Iran has effectively disarmed a large portion of the US air-defense capability.

Iran just checkmated the US and Israel without a major war–the military equivalent of an Aikido demonstration.

Our leftist media would have shown that destruction to soothe the pro-hamas protestors around the country.


They would have gotten their jollies showing it.

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99% of the attack was crappy drones that were intended to be decoys to draw fire with expensive US and Israeli missiles.

The 1% of the attack with high-performance got through. That is the point.

I thought I had seen the stupidest Russian propaganda you could post before… I was wrong


It’s BS propaganda actually.

IMO…it was a way of saving face for two of their generals who were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria.

I also don’t think they wanted to do serious damage because if Israel retaliated, it would replicate Gaza but in Iran.

As far as the expense? I agree…that Israel spent a lot more money defending themselves than what Iran spent on their attack.


“Israel’s chief military spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said Iran’s attack involved more than 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones and more than 30 cruise missiles, according to a report by The Associated Press news agency.”

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push Bibi into the wrong corner and parts of Iran will glow in the dark

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Yes, that is what the Israeli government said. They also promised further retaliation and escalation against Iran. What happened?

The lack of an Israeli counterattack since April 13 is a dog not barking. It supports the analysis linked in the OP–the US and Israel effectively lost a war of attrition within a few hours.

Reality sucks.

um they did retaliate. So you were wrong about the missiles now wrong about the retaliation. Where you gonna jump next?

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The retaliation comprised a missile that came down in a field.

Israeli leaders and allies in Washington were salivating at the opportunity to destroy Iran once and for all. Instead American hegemony is being destroyed as the world watches.



So your jump was off from they didn’t retaliate too some obscure photo of a missile. Dude you are losing it.

Do you have any evidence that Israel has done anything more than a token response since April 13?

Consider Netanyahu’s vow to attack Iran from April 4:

“Iran has been acting against us for years — directly and via proxies. And, therefore, Israel acts against Iran and its proxies — defensively and offensively,” he says.

Netanyahu adds: “We will know how to defend ourselves, and we will act according to the simple principle: that those who harm us or plan to harm us, we will harm.”

The feeble Israel response is consistent with the US exhausting its air-defense capability on April 13. Further escalation would just result in a humiliating defeat for the US and Israel.