Over the last two weeks a series of polls, including reports on Republican internal polling, have shown Biden’s strength in a number of swing states. You can see the impact in the Trump team pivot from trying to limit the impact of the virus to trying to restart the economy.
Biden’s two point lead in Texas is within the polls margin of error and so there’s no way to say who truly is ahead… and I think the Democrats would be stretching to expect to take Texas in 2020. However, these data will cause the Republican to have to put a lot more resources into holding Texas than in previous elections and that leaves less money for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Georgia etc. where Trump is facing risks of losing electoral votes he won in 2016.
The demographic trends in Texas have been clear for a while. Unless the Republican Party makes an effort to expand its base, Texas will go blue in this decade and that will make the recent Republican path to the Presidency (lose the popular vote/win the Electoral College) unworkable.
I believe that Trump will win Texas again, and that Texas is not really a battleground state yet. Cruz won Texas’s Senate race in November of 2018.
However, Arizona is now a battleground state, and Trump is in danger of losing Arizona this time around. Sinema won Arizona’s Senate race in November of 2018, and Biden has been up in the polls in Arizona.
I remember 2016 very clearly. But more importantly, I know that polls give probabilities, not absolute answers. The final polls in 2016 gave Clinton about a 7 to 1 shot of winning the Presidency. Good odds, but no lock. Trump pulled an upset, as seven to one shots sometimes do.
Polls in May are not terribly predictive of what will happen in November. There is so much unpredictability in our world right now… if Trump is able to lead rapid re-opening and. bounce back of the economy that will certainly improve his chances… but right now the polls showing erosion of Trump support among voters over age 65 should give every Trump supporter reason to worry.
Assuming a Trump/Biden race, Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote and Trump will probably go into Nov. 3 needing another upset. Possible? Certainly. But a lock? Not at all.
the legal ones come here to work their asses off and take advantage of all the prosperity America has to offer which Trump celebrates and advocates nonstop
why do you think so many come here hating instead?