The difference in the rate has nothing to do with how it spreads or how easily it spreads, it’s directly related to the days or weeks of latency where you can be spreading it while totally asymptomatic as well as the duration while you are symptomatic.
Influenza unlike CCPV can spread easily on the wind and is even more survivable on surfaces since it’s not dependent upon personalized droplets to carry and protect it.
But pre-symptomatic spread of Flu is rare, and common with COVID. Flu also has half the incubation rate. Its not just mode of transmission that factors into transmission.
no, not 80%
because the virus struggles to survive outdoors, and struggles to gain foothold in younger healthier populations an acceptable level of herd immunity could be as low as 35%. Especially if we continue with the more benign measures like social distancing, wear a mask where that’s not possible, hygiene. A month ago NYC was at 22%.
If you had actually read my previous post before attempting to correct me yo’d have seen that I laid that out in detail.
The big problem with CCPV is that you can spread it much longer, up to several weeks even symptomatically where as with the typical seasonal flu you’re only contagious for about 3-5 days and only after becoming symptomatic.
I am not getting into some weird circular argument with you about Flu vs. COVID transmissibility. COVID is more contagious by the Ro by 2 to 4x. If you want to disagree with the numbers, have at it.
I recently heard that it was probably already in Louisiana during Mardi gras. It was here and spreading before we had any idea what we were dealing with. Again, China knew but withheld vital information that could have contained it and given other countries an opportunity to get ahead of it. But somehow, Libs manage to blame Trump. Go figure…
No, I’m not. I hate numbers. They are a necessary evil and not interesting at all. Like police.
Under lockdown conditions.
Are you factoring in behavior?
What I said, was, is, and will remain accurate. You’re stuck on the RO number, I’m talking about the virus itself and how easily it can be spread particularly the fact it is airborne.
How about that sparsely populated little place called Hong Kong?
Wait, let’s be clear, do you want the same limits on rights in the US as exist in HK?
Do you want gov’t edicts enforced with the same force and threats?
Let’s also be clear, you’re comparing one city, an Island City at that to an entire country.
Early Measures
In recent days, the virus’s spread in the U.S. – highlighted by the National Basketball Association’s decision to suspend the season – has driven home the need to avoid large gatherings, even as some government officials have maintained there’s no reason to panic. Recent high-profile infections, including actor Tom Hanks, the Australian home affairs minister and the wife of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, also underscore the need to take early precautions.
Most of Hong Kong’s restrictions were put in place at the end of January, when the city had only a handful of cases. As of Monday, it had 157 cases in total, including returnees from the stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship, and only four deaths. By contrast South Korea didn’t start taking unprecedented measures until Feb. 23, when hundreds had already been infected. It has now seen more than 8,100 people infected and 75 deaths.
New York City also acted much later by comparison. On Sunday evening, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that public schools would be shut from March 16 as the city’s tally soared over the weekend to 463 confirmed cases and five deaths.
If you want to make comparisons then let’s try apples to apples and look at the different responses in HK and NYC and the results.
HK 7.4 million people, Island City, Center of International commerce and finance.
NYC 17.4 Million, Island City, Center of International Commerce and Finance.
In the absence of a vaccine, the calculation for percentage needed to achieve herd immunity is straightforward.
Herd immunity threshold = 1 - 1/R0
R0 is the basic reproduction number. If the current coronavirus has an R0 of 3-4, that’s a herd immunity threshold of 66-75%. Unless the argument is the weather will completely destroy the virus, without further risk of infection, it has no impact on the herd immunity threshold. It will get cold again.
And I am saying that asymptomatic spread is a huge advantage for COVID. Will agree to disagree, I will stick with the Ro.
There’s not going to be an effective vaccine.
And one more time.
You’re stuck on the RO number, I’m talking about the virus itself and how easily it can be spread particularly the fact it is airborne.
@toreyj01 and @WildRose, aren’t you two basically talking past each other? WR is focused on short-term and Torey on long-term? Or easier to be infected immediately, versus a longer period in which infection can be incurred?
The main point I’m making is that the virus itself spreads much easier and further than CCPV which is is a totally separate issue.
It’s much more difficult to defend against an airborne particle than it is aerosolized droplets.\
The Flu virus is also much more persistent and survivable.
A few year back they literally dug up some of the 1918 flu victims and got viable virus particles to use in researching vaccines.
As in, easily accomplished methods like wearing a mask will drastically change its unimpeded r/o
