Same here, and that’s just it. People making these decisions are making them based on either meetings with higher authority figures in govt, health depts. (who have probably done the same) etc. They aren’t pulling these things out of their behind. They have talked to people and developed a plan.
Just because we aren’t privy to every detail of the meetings or what their plan was, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Some of us just have officials that are better at providing info to their constituents. Pretending all those people are just pulling their plans out of their nether regions just to be able to point a finger at Trump is rather pathetic.
Yep, I think my prediction on hitting the peak in the next five-seven days is going to be very close if not right on.
It looks like we’ve got more than enough resources deployed to handle the rest of the surge and treatments that are working so this should greatly reduce the mortality rate and hopefully the hysteria.
Just saw where the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths may now be more like in the 66,000 range. Fauci was saying that the models were just as good as the assumptions you put into them. As you get more data, you go back and change the model. Naturally, he was claiming that the social distancing recommendations were the reason for the change.
Well, I guess all those complaints about the way the administration handled this will all turn into glorious praise now.
Given the timeline, what was known at each point along that timeline, and what was possible lay out your case for what could and should have been done that wasn’t.
How fitting it would be if we leveled off and started the downward trend “On the Third Day”, and that we could then declare the worst over and be in recovery 40 days later?
That number (IHME model) is the first peak only, assuming social distancing through June.
Here is from the authors of that model.
The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.
Flattening the curve is great, but it means a greater amount of people will still be susceptible after the first peak has passed. H1N1 had numerous peaks despite no significant social distancing measures, or to at least the scale we see with the coronavirus.
Edit: new graph. I believe the area under the curve for the second wave was still less than the first. I could be wrong.
With the H1N1 having a large first peak in the US, subsequent peaks were likely lessened, although the 2nd peak in October had nearly the same number of cases as the first. The H1N1 vaccine was available beginning November of 2009, 7 months after the first US case which was 95% effective and basically ended the threat. H1N1 also had a lower morality rate (0.02%) than the novel coronavirus (currently 3.4% in the US, although that will fall), and lower rate of spread (R0 of 1.2-1.6 for H1N1 vs. around 2 for 2019-nCoV last calculated in mid-March).
Knowing the timeline, what was known at each stage of the way, and what is possible lay out what you would have done different looking forward rather than back.
It’s amazing, isn’t it? Trump supporters are willing to blame any and everyone except Trump without blinking. However if anyone dare blame the guy in charge for anything, then it’s TDS. It’s very…very, what’s that word?
