- The advanced estimate of retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February. - Excluding autos, the numbers also were strong than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared to the 0.3% forecast.
. . . Motor vehicle and parts dealers reported a surge of 5.3% in sales.
The reading points to spending holding strong despite the crosscurrents of looming tariffs and expectations that the economy is weakening.
“Net, net, these are simply blow out numbers on March retail sales where the rush is on like this is one gigantic clearance sale,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “Consumers are expecting sharply higher prices the next year and are clearing the store shelves and picking up bargains while they can.” . . .
Supplies of new and used vehicles for sale are declining rapidly as consumers flock to stores ahead of potential price increases due to tariffs.
The days’ supply of new vehicles – calculated by an estimated daily retail sales rate – dropped from 91 days at the beginning of March to 70 days this month, according to Cox Automotive.
There’s concern that the sales could come to a grinding halt once automakers and dealers sell out of their tariff-free inventories.
There is a history of this.
Fed thwarts the free market by taking action to boost consumption.
Cons (myself included) point out
“They are just moving future consumption into the present.”
Apparently now that the same argument can be used to cast shade on Donald Trump . . . it will become the mainstream narrative.
Direct from the source (I have added the bullets to make it more legible):
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion,
up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and
up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2024.
Total sales for the January 2025 through March 2025 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The January 2025 to February 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Retail trade sales were up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2025, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 8.8 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while
nonstore retailers were up 4.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from March 2024.
We’d been thinking of replacing my wife’s 2013 Mazda 3 with a new car as hers was getting a little long in the tooth.
So we accelerated out time line and replaced it with a Subaru Crosstrek specifically because with Trump in office we had a strong feeling that tariffs were going to increase the cost by thousands of dollars.
So we accelerated our purchase to beat the price increase. About a week later the US/Canada/Mexico â– â– â– â– show started.
My theory (and I am far from alone in this)
when the Fed lowers rates to “grow” the economy, it does not really grow it. It just pulls future consumption into the present.
It’s always done that.
it’s always been “not real” only, in the past, the media did not bother to tell you it’s “not real.”
But they will tell you this time.
Ya follow me?
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Okay now let’s try this exercise:
I don’t know how old you are, but I’d like you to think of all the times you heard
“The economy is growing,” and especially the times home sales or car sales were mentioned in relation to that.
Think about that not just over the past few years or whatever
over your whole life.
Population grows,
two car families,
divorce leads to more families,
incomes growing
And yet . . .
same number of car sales as the late 1970s.
same number of new home sales as the early 1970s.
A lot of times when “the economy is growing” stories appear in the media I poo-poo the news saying It’s fake," or “It’s smoke and mirrors.”
Difference between me and the media is I didn’t suddenly start doing it because Donald Trump is president.
We agree on that. 
