CNBC: ECONOMY Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000 (up 10.5% in a week)

[Gaius]

Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August

Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending on May 4, up 22,000 from the week before.

Initial filings for unemployment benefits have hit their highest level since late August 2023, a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing.

Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending on May 4, up 22,000 from the previous period and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 214,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the highest claims number since Aug. 26, 2023.

The increase in claims follows a string of mostly strong hiring reports, though hiring in April was light compared with expectations. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. . . .

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It’s high.
It’s bad.
But a weekly number is not always followed up by week-after-week of repeated bad numbers.

Pre-pandemic (with a red line at 10% for reference)

Post-pandemic (with a red line at 10% for reference)

[Gaius]

Of perhaps greater concern is the percent of the labor force unemployed long term (27 weeks)
Except for

• now, and
• last year

Long-term unemployment at this elevated level has been called a recession every time it happened post 1965. But I guess that matters little because, if the pattern holds, long-term unemployment will soon shoot up and recession will be undeniable. (Hard to predict with so much helicopter money still floating around, anything can happen.)