China, new home sales fall 28.6% in a month, 39+% in a year, Exports plummet 14.5% Y-o-Y, Youth unemployment over 20%! No longer to be reported . . . . (goodbye BRICS)

WSJ:

A nascent two-month recovery in China’s home sales ended in July, as a widespread mortgage revolt over concerns that ailing property developers wouldn’t be able to deliver still-unfinished apartments weighed on demand.

Sales at the country’s top 100 property developers fell 39.7% in July from the same period last year to the equivalent of $77.6 billion, or 523.14 billion yuan, according to data released Sunday by CRIC, a Chinese real-estate data provider.

July sales were down 28.6% from June . . .

CNBC

BEIJING — China reported July data that broadly missed expectations. The National Bureau of Statistics report also did not include the unemployment figure for young people, which has soared to record highs in recent months.

. . .The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June.

The age 16 to 24 category has seen unemployment far above the overall jobless rate, reaching a record high of 21.3% in June.

A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said the bureau is suspending the youth unemployment number release due to economic and social changes, and is reassessing its methodology. . . .

Big-ticket items such as autos and home appliances saw sales declines in July from a year ago.

Exports plunged by 14.5% year-on-year in July, following a 12.4% drop in June. Factory activity contracted for a fourth-straight month in July, according to an official survey.

BBC

Deflation: Why falling prices in China raise concerns

China’s economy has slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.

Most developed countries saw a boom in consumer spending after pandemic restrictions ended. . . .

But this is not what happened in China . . .

In fact, they have been at the cusp of deflation for months, flatlining earlier this year due to weak demand. The prices charged by China’s manufacturers - known as factory gate prices - have also been falling.

Reuters

China tips into deflation as efforts to stoke recovery falter

  • CPI fell in annual terms for the first time in 2 years
  • China first G20 economy to report deflation since Japan in 2021

The data comes a day after trade figures showed exports and imports both slumping in July and follows a spate of reports on more debt troubles in China’s giant property sector. Worried consumers and companies are hoarding cash rather than spending or investing it, despite lower interest rates.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-consumer-prices-swing-into-decline-deflation-risks-build-2023-08-09/

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As severe as the news from China is, I have NOT read nor heard of any serious analyst describing this as “the beginning of the end” there.

Every serious analyst seems to be treating it as

  • China is on the brink of recession
  • Exports may or may not rebound, and that will, to a large degree determine how serious the recession is.

wow.

high unemployment and deflation.

doesnt sound good.

wish them well in recovery.

Allan (on his way to work in NYC)

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tenor

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