BREAKING: May Jobs Report: Payrolls Plus 139,000..... "Foreign born" minus 224,000 ----> Stock market leaps upward

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Stock futures rose on Friday after the latest nonfarm payrolls data came in better than expected, alleviating some concerns of a downturn in the U.S. economy.

S&P 500 futures added 0.7%. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 277 points, or 0.7%. Nasdaq-100 futures
advanced 0.8%.

U.S. payrolls saw an increase of 139,000 in May, coming in above the Dow Jones forecast of 125,000 for the month . . .

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  • 224,000
    =
    A second straight monthly decline in the number of foreign born workers has not yet been sufficient to break the long term trend.

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On a slightly related note, Grok had this to say just now:

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If
we assume the drop in foreign born employment is not a fluke.
Then the following applies:
(I am not yet ready to make that assumption, but if we did, the following is true.)

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Some of the most interesting data is in the details.

“The following” does not apply. Why are you assuming all foreign-born workers are criminals?

It’s 14% of the population, 1/2 of whom are citizens.

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So let me get this straight…that’s 139 thousand jobs created without government expansion?

We’ve been over this.
(Every 2nd month it seems)

I don’t choose the categories,
your government does. Your gov provides these numbers without telling us if the 2 million plus per year wrre foreign brides, H1b vusa holders etc.

We do know that

  • the 2m+ annual “foreign born” employment numbers correlate strongly with reports from ICE of 2m+ illegal border crossings per year
  • only 225,000 marriage visas are given each year.
  • only 65,000 H1b visas are given each year

Anyone who does not pretend he gaims at basic math will likely see the vast majority of these 2 million plus persons fall into another category.

Red Herrings are a poor basis for one’s weltanschauung, and a poor basis for governance.

The trajectory has been basically the same since 2010 (with the obvious pandemic drop). You’re saying the increase is people working illegally and responding to a survey stating that they are employed? OK then.

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Are you putting words in my mouth.
That’s an equally bad way to gather data & answer questions.

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How else could the number increase, if not by people responding as such in the survey?

(but the monty python reference is fantastic)

Fair enough.
It just seems like an odd way to phrase it.

It is! It’s a broadly good report showing, among other things, a big decline in temp help services. That’s considered a positive sign in most cases.

The household side of the report isn’t as strong but it’s pretty solid as well.

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Household survey:
The number of people entering and leaving the labor force seems to swing back and forth a LOT lately.

Yes, something doesn’t add up in the data. I’m not sure I recall this big of a difference between household and establishment employment monthly changes, either.

(As far as employment goes I think the problem is on the household survey side)

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