I’ve been saying for months (Hmm I guess it is over a year now,) that the folks at the Fed who keep under-estimating inflation, (calling it “transitory” etc,)
and the Wall st analysts who keep over-guessing corporate earnings
are “right.” “Right” in that they are just properly using the bad models they learned in college
The problem is college textbook deep.
There must be examples in other fields. (Did we ever teach biology wrong? or Physics wrong?)
The textbooks are written by the center-left (Mankiw, Bernanke, Stiglitz etc.) and the poor schleps who keep telling us “Everything is fine. Inflation is not a problem. Spending grows the economy. etc…” are the hapless victims of poor economics textbooks.
Here’s another one, from Japan two days ago, where the actual PPI came in 3 times higher than the estimates from experts.
Thing 1: Par for the course:
The economy is bad but the WH takes the low road does the opposite of FDR, Carter Reagan etc. by trying to spin the news as though the economy is strong.
vs.
Thing 2: Sit up and take notice
Nearly the entire body of nonpartisan experts in some field keep getting it wrong and keep getting it wrong the same way.