Shelter up 3%
Rent up 3%
Hospital services up 6%
Car repair up 9.7%
Energy commodities up 1.2%
Energy services up 7.4%
Food at Home up 2.6%
Beef up 15.8%
Coffee up 18.8%
Pork chops —DOWN— 6.3%
Eggs --DOWN-- 13.2%
Citrus fruit --DOWN-- 4.3%
Potatoes --DOWN-- 3.7%
College tuition up 1.7%
Subscription and rental of video and video games up 8.5%
Delivery services up 8.9%
…and the billions in costs of illegal immigration, thanks to Biden has nothing to do with it.
Step in the right direction? Maybe?Certainly not winning like fearless leader said last night. Cant remember the last time I ate a good reasonably priced piece of Cow!
Shelter is 33% of the CPI.
If it flatlines here that implies 3 things.
My guess:
The Fed will declare that combination to be intolerable.
It will once again attempt to subvert the free market, (return-to-equilibirum) by holding home prices artificially high.
Rational:
They have paper models that emphasize “what happened most recently” and they believe the dual mandate is
I hope home prices collapse.
This seems like good news. Some are saying the government shutdown is partly responsible for the lower-than-expected rate. Hopefully that’s not the case.
I don’t know that we need a collapse,
if they fall about 20-30% they will be back to the norm and it will feel like a collapse.
Make it 40-50% and you got a deal!
If you’re worried about forward Fed policy the good news is this:
The new Fed chair only gets one vote.
Below is a prediction model. It is not a “want” it is a prediciton.
Imagine homes rent for 1% of selling price.
(IOW to buy a home ya gotta pay monthly rent x100)
Or, I don’t care,
you can imagine they rent for 2% of selling price
(IOW to buy a home ya gotta pay monthly rent x 50)
Let’s completely set aside our ideas about what ‘should’ happen.
Right now the blue line is so far above the green line that to restore that traditional ratio, home prices would need to fall 28%.
Restoring equilibrium means the Fed needs to sell $2 trillion in MBS.
At the current rate
(much much slower than the Fed thought it was okay to buy them)
that will take 11 years.
will longer than 11 years, because the Fed is STILL buying longbonds (it’s traditional instrument for forcing home prices up)
Or rents need to rise!
(Doing maths, not stating realistic scenarios)
I don’t see a scenario where the Fed moves all MBS’s off its balance sheet.
Correct
The Fed believes
“We can buy a lot very quickly that is good,”
but
“If we sell a lot very quickly that is bad.”
They have a three part mandate
Sarcasm aside,
the salient fact is . . .
if the Fed sold-off MBS and long bonds (moved back toward equilibirum) fast enough, home prices would flatline and it would immediately hit its inflation target.
when is the half life of the blame biden talking point.
Allan
What he did was MASSIVE and will negatively impact this nation for years to come.
so i believe biden will still be blamed the next time. a republican win the white around 2036 or 2040
Allan
Depends,
did he specifically mention immigration?
We gotta undo 3 million criminals driving wages down, rent up, and healthcare costs up, to get back to pre-Biden levels.
But . . . if he is just talking about the overall economic picture, then he is wrong to blame stuff on Biden.
People ain;t smart. They believe the media. If Trump does not connect the dots, no one is gonna do it for him.
the next democratic president in 2029 will be blaming trump for high unemployment and lack of job growth which has stagnated under trumps second term as president.
Allan
