. . . American imports of farm goods are forecast to climb 6.5% in the year ending Sept. 30 to $219.5 billion, with inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice and coffee accounting for much of the increase, the USDA said. Exports are forecast at $170.5 billion, 2.2% lower than a year earlier.
“Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions,” the USDA said.
Pricey cocoa and sugar are also adding to the import bill. And while some grain exports are expected to rise, traditional American crops have been losing allure overseas for years, with Russia overtaking the US as the world’s top wheat shipper and Brazil surpassing the US as the biggest exporter of corn, cotton and soybeans. . . .
The free market does not generally make sudden shifts of this nature, possible, but not likely.
More likely circa 2010 crisis a bunch of central banks or central governments adopted new policies.
Sarcasm: Of course any government policy that is not CALLED a tariff is a good one, and is not intended to create a hidden tariff. So, it’s best that we don’t respond right?
I’m not sure why we subsidize soybeans. I guess because the soybean farmers have a lobby.
Most farmers sell into a monopsony so . . . some sort of gov’t intervention is m/l reasonable, (potential market failure), but it does not have to apply to every crop, and it does not mean every subsidy of every size is appropriate.
Still, the sudden change in the chart shows telltale signs of “probably not the free market.” @7426k
Definitely not the free market! A sordid mess of subsidies, penalties, abused water rights and a million mis-aligned incentives. The only free markets in agriculture are at your local farmers market and within the confines of the Chicago Board of Trade / the futures market. I think the crop incentives are a far larger concern than the number of buyers. We’d do far better by getting the government out of it.
(especially when that government gets all Andrew Mellon about things and says “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy,”)
Many industries are measured according to the market share of the top 4 firms.
I guarantee you not a single dairy farmer anywhere in America gets to choose from among 4 buyers. Nowhere in America are there 4 competing dairy firms competing to buy a farmer’s milk.
Ergo the prima facie case for market failure exists right there (monopsony) the same as it does for air pollution.
I also wonder how much of this is cause by water right/diversion. I mean water going to some fish and not fresh veggies is part of cause. Just thinking out loud here.
Let’s accept (for sake of an entertaining discussion) that’s correct. There’s still a marginal price involved here - and Vermont still produces 250M gallons of milk in this so-called uncompetitive market. When the Northeast Dairy Compact disappeared, Vermont didn’t stop producing milk. Somehow the market - even with an alleged monopsony buying (group) - still works. People. If it’s a market failure it’s a pretty damn weak one.
On a related note, which I might not have been clear about in my original post, we are stuck subsidizing low-value items and therefore stuck importing high-value items. I’m guessing that’s the source of the change in Ag trade balance; the calorie output in the US is still as high as it’s ever been (again, speculating there) it’s just that we export a lot of cheap calories and import a lot of expensive ones.
Also I have no idea if you can grow an avocado in SoCal.
Well, the article cites “inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice and coffee accounting for much of the increase . . .”
and
"Pricey cocoa and sugar are also adding to the import bill . . . "
There is a small, but real possibility that the article is correct.
It is written by honest, well-intentioned people who are trained to turn a blind eye to things like currency manipulation and massive money-printing at the fed, trained instead to look at the free-market as a loose cannon (or positively evil.)
Wisconsin produces 14% of America’s dairy and a lot (most??) of it gets turned into government cheese. That tells me the subsidy is too high in Wisconsin.
In Vermont?
The milk probably gets shipped to nearby markets.
Are you going to sit here and tell me that orange juice, avocados and coffee flipped to 49 billion dollar deficit? specially when we always imported coffee?
something like 85% of Vermont milk goes to Cabot or the statewide dairy coop. Cabot is obviously national but I have no idea where the Coop milk goes. I presume supermarkets but that’s not my lane.
The best part of the AI overview: The Northeast Dairy Compact rate was something like $14 per 100 weight. We got rid of government supports and the price increased to today’s $22.80.
I have trouble believing the answer to this non-existent problem is more government involvement in the dairy market.
Amber waves of . . . 
