BARRON'S: Home Sellers Are Dropping Prices, but Buyers Aren’t Budging

Nationally, existing-home sales are down 2.4% through April despite a 5.1% gain in the number of properties for sale, says National Association of Realtors senior economist Nadia Evangelou. Costs are an issue: “The market is seeing a recovery in listings, but demand remains soft due to affordability constraints,” she says.

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In Dallas, where prices have risen more than 50% since late 2019, buyers aren’t pulling the trigger “because prices haven’t really crashed yet,” says Re/Max’s Luong. “They are going to need to see some sort of a drop that is very evident compared to what prices were a few years ago.” Though price cuts have picked up, the magnitude of the drops—$10,000 here, $15,000 there—isn’t enough to get buyers back in the game, he adds.

Ya see, when I make a bunch of money on a stock,
a uexpectedly quick gain, I usually sell. I certainly do NOT plan the rest of my life around that stock keep its new-found value long term.

Looks like supply increases haven’t put enough downward pressure on prices yet to have an impact.

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Well a lot of homeowners (people) are trapped in their mortgages.
When rates wer 2.5% instead of buying a reasonable house and saving a bundle of money.

They bought the biggest house they could possibly afford, and now moving. (for divorce, age, job transfer etc.) means stepping down their lifestyle a LOT.

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I hope home prices plummet to mid-90’s levels. Spoken as a property owner.

Poor judgement and lack of a crystal ball.

When I make a sudden unexpected return on a stock I usually sell.
I certainly do not plan my life around it holding its value.

Possibly the most important chart I have posted is this one.

After all was said and done, I bought my home with 13 acres of land for $198k.

When I split it into 4 partitions and sell it in 12-15 more years, I don’t give a ■■■■ if it “only” sells for a total of $150k.

I won’t have “lost” $48k. That $48k is what it will have cost me to live here for 22-25 years, and I’d have a $150k rebate.

25 years is 300 months.

48,000 / 300 = $160 per month.

I haven’t paid $160 a month in rent since I split an apartment with my brothers in the 90’s. I didn’t even get my own bathroom. :rofl:

My uncle had a nice piece of land.
He followed the rules when he subdivided, and truned it into a series of biggesh lots.

The silly wrong-headed idea of the (rural) township was that to preserve the rural atmosphere, which is a truly worthy goal, each home should have a large lot.

Today it looks like a farm chopped up into large lots. Ugly ugly ugly.
It would been much better if he had put a 4-pack of townhomes in one little corner and left the rest as a farmette.

That wasn’t legal but he now wishes he had asked.
(Below is NOT my uncle’s land. It’s just an illustration I use to make the point.)

Ah, good collectivist living arrangements.

Let’s be perfectly clear, the reason we have tins like set back laws and laws about minimum lot sizes and laws agsing multi-family housing etc. is because buliders and buyers and sellers would build and buy and sell those things

Laws are passed to prevent people from doing what they want

Image 1

four-10 home clusteed together in the corner of a large field. lots of field, lots of woods etc.

vs
Image 2

drive 330 feet → House
drive 330 feet → House
drive 330 feet → House
drive 330 feet → House
drive 330 feet → House

Here is a picture from Europe.

Now imagine the government stepped in and said
"NO! We must preseve nature so you should spread those 20 homes apart from each other onto 3 acre lots.
It is much better if they chew-up sixty acres.
We will pass minimum lot sizes. You are prohibitted from keeping those homes together and leaving the land untouched.

sprawl2

Here is Ireland.

The gov’t could say
“You are free do whatever you want.”

Or it could say “Noooo! You are not free. You are not allowed to do that. You will obey.
You must have three acre lots sizes and every home must sit at least 50 feet from the side of every lot. . . . that way we will preseve out natural beauty.”

image

The arrows are pointing to NJ and TX. So, TX is cold, but NJ is still hot?

Sorry my bad.
Only part of the image transferred.
I’ll look for the original and try to repost it.

Here it is
image

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This is anecdotal, but from what I have seen in NJ it’s still a decent housing market. The houses in my area that have gone up for sale have sold rather quickly and for asking price or higher. I also know people who have recently purchased homes who actually had to over bid.

They should always be able to do what they want. But if our collectivist brethren had their way, it would be mandated multi family only.

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I keep my eyes open for changes in the NJ market,
and I have seen nothing major. Generally, even though half of all states are seeing price declines, the big drops in price are in a hanful of southern states.

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I do not disagree,
but all the laws are agsinst multi-family and highdensity housing.

Apparently builders think

  • “When I buy 30 acres I’d rather put up 30-100 homes instead of just ten,”
    —> and buyers will gladly accept these because of lower prices.

  • "I don’t want to put in
    300-feet of road, and
    300-feet of sidewalks, and
    300-feet of sewer, and
    300-feet of of storm drain, and
    300-feet of water main, and
    300-feet of . . . for every home unless you make me.
    —> and buyers will gladly accept these because of lower prices.

Along comes government and says:
“What buyers and sellers and builders want is stoopid. We must prevent them from doing what they want. As a goverment it is our job to prevent people from getting what they want.”

The result is made clear in the pictures I posted.

Not everyone wants the same thing, and desire tends to drive what one will be willing to pay for. It’s the acid test.

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