Yeah everyone knew they were coming. It’s called “price in” in the lingo.
(Estimate was for 1 a revision of 1 million)
Job growth was revised down from 2.9 million to 2.1 million.
Where did I get the math wrong?
1 Like
The job growth during the period in question was revised down to 2.1 million jobs.
How is 2.1 million jobs a failure?
1 Like
I am of the opinion that Tom the Cat should change course.
He should start doing something different.
Others would say
“No. It is a success story and he should change nothing until he hits bottom.”
The weird thing is they have started to believe that.
2 Likes
Wait… you are including Labor force participation?
Anything to make the chart you want I guess.
Funny.
1 Like
I divided by labor force.
I used the stand methodology as the BLS, Census, the Fed Joe Biden Kamala Harris and all standard methodology.
Make it easy on yourself.
Own up to the fact that
- unemployment is rising,
- that full-time employment is declining somewhat sharply
- etc.
and begin blaming corporations and calling for more welfare now.
Doing so now will save you a lot of time and energy.
1 Like
Unemployment is still under 5%… which is historically good.
It just shows that there has to be some jiggerry pokery to make 2.1 Million jobs gained in the time period look like a bad thing.
What this signals is that the Fed will cut rates soon.
1 Like
I did no “jiggery.”
Everytime you lose an argument you accuse me of being dishonest.
It is a shameful and emotionally immature tactic on your part.
Yes the Fed will lower rates soon . . . because the economy esp the labor market is in decline. (The Fed is on my side. You are the one saying they are wrong.)
If you like you can blame the Fed for causing the problem in the first place. The only unintelligent thing to do is to deny the problem (You know, the one the fed sees and will soon respond to.)
2 Likes
Do you see this part where I imply something should change?
You could even argue (as the Fed does) “Yes and that thing is interest rates. Joe Biden is not to blame and his policies should continue.”
I’d still disagree but at least such an argument would pass the laugh test.
Putting one’s head in the sand and hurling accusations is the mark of a six-year-old.
I am not blaming anyone.
We had a devastating pandemic that threw the entire world economy into turmoil which coming out if hypercharged supply line issues and employment as people went back to work causing inflation globally.
Then we see a great year of employment gains get revised down to a good year of employment gains and then there is this chart that uses Labor Force Participation…which only seems important with Dems are in office to show a downward trend when we all know that there is still a pretty hefty labor shortage in this country.
All of this data doesn’t show doom and gloom but that the Fed can now pull the trigger on reducing interests rates to free up Capital because there are indicators that the labor is finally opening up to being able to handle more economic expansion.
That line on the chart… it ignores the really severe dip like it never happened… and that is why I am calling jiggery pokery.
You wanna blame COVID you can blame COVID (I blame the gov’t response to COVID).
Unemployment is rising.
The economy is not creating full-time jobs at its previous rate.
The is not creating enough full-time jobs to keep pace with labor force growth.
The “searing hot” is creating only part-time jobs.
The "hot job market "is limited to part-time jobs
I know it, BLS knows it and the Fed knows it. This is the very reason the is prepping to lower interest rates.
(I happen to think the Fed should not lower rates. There are other things they can and should do and they should never be in the businesses of saving zombie companies even though those zombie companies have payrolls.)
2 Likes
Of course Covid… not the government response… but the pandemic threw everything out of whack. You can’t have over a million people die in this nation alone in a pretty short period of time without it affecting the economy. That is not including the global reaction and death toll. It’s silly to think that Covid could have blown through … no biggie… and it would all be fine.
Unemployment is rising… but it is still under 5%… which is good. Things are going to be fine.
I don’t understand the need to make everything coming out of a major economic disruption like the pandemic seem like doom and gloom.
For my buddy in Pa.
Since Oct of '22
The S&P is up 49.78%
Gold is up 50.60%
(Bonds and bitcoin are up too)
There seems to be as much money flowing into the market as flowing against the market.
Maybe underlying companies are not doing so well, and what is really happening, the only thing that is really happening is that a bunch of leftover lying around helicopter money is flowing into everything.
Yeah doom-and-cloom is what people call it.
I actually think it’s a sign that the toilet is full of crap needs to be flushed.
Zombie companies,
Doomed-to-fail consumer-spending levels etc.
should be recognized for what they are not celebrated
I am actually more doom-and-gloom about the idea that once cent gov finally realizes/admits what’s going on they will intervene to stop the flushing.
I’m going to post two charts and I want folks to tell me what they think they mean.
I think they mean a bunch of helicopter money entered the economy and a bunch of doomed-to-fail businesses opened, temporarily sustained by doomed-to-fail levels of consumer spending.
The Philadelphia Services Full-time Employment Index -14.9
