Last year’s unusually hot and dry summer was caused by an Earth-Facing sunspot as well (Sunspot AR3038), which was about 3 times the size of Earth.
Here is an image of Sunspot AA3354, which didn’t even exist 2 days ago.
Over the last 30 hours or so, it has rapidly grown to be 5 times the size of Earth, and is about to be pointed directly at us. Solar flares over the next 24 hours could reveal the Northern Lights for some folks just south of Canada.
This sunspot could potentially take months to clear up, and with how “slow” the sun rotates, things could get really hot and dry for the rest of the season.
The Carrington Sunspot of 1859 compared to Sunspot AA3354. Still twice as small as the one responsible for the Carrington Event, but half the electrical surges and shortages nowadays could get spicy.
Sunspot count has reached a 21-year high. There haven’t been this many sunspots since 2002, with the monthly average for June 2023 being 163.
On the plus side, AR3354 is no longer facing towards Earth (that was fast), which is great considering the risk of X-class solar flares (it erupted with one two days ago and affected radio comms along the the west coast and Pacific).
Unfortunately, because there’s absolutely nothing constant about the Sun’s thermal output (a fact about any and every type of known star in the Universe), and anyone trying to say otherwise is indeed an alarmist at best.
Solar Cycle 25 appears to be reaching its peak earlier than the initial forecast. There is nothing to indicate it being any “worse”, or even as “bad” as Solar Cycle 23.
Speaking of heat sources, the El Niño effect is a BIG one this cycle, and will definitely have many effects on the weather this year (hopefully the ensuing wind sheers over the Atlantic will drive away the hurricanes):
