Economists project 2023 will mark the slowest home sales year since the housing bubble burst in 2008.
Redfin estimated there will only be roughly 4.1 million sales of existing homes across the nation by year’s end due to persistently high mortgage rates — now hovering at 7.63% — and low inventory scaring buyers away.
Just last month, sales retreated 15.4% from the previous year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Sales receded in all regions except for the Northeast in September, the data showed. . . .
Data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage applications dropped to the lowest level since 1995.
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Anyway. 30-year mortgage rates are now at the bottom of the stabile long-term range.
Historically, this is the bottom of a narrow 2-3 point variable range.
(Sans major Fed intervention to improve things, the market-rate of 30-year mortgages swings between 7 and 10%.
My Twitterfeed has no shortage of people openly predicting (hoping for) a housing crash and calling the now-trapped homeowners “stupid” etc…
There is plenty of blame to go around, but frankly, with roughly 20-years of artificially low rates, buyers made reasonable decisions. Many of them made money and will keep it.
As for the others, well, the Fed pulled the rug out from under them. It had to happen, but it is sad and they spent their entire lives seeing low rates. It is not fair to them, in a sense. After such a long time, the assumptions that “0-5% rates are normal,” and “houses only go up,” are natural assumptions.
Neither do I.
Certainly in the ~2008 there were several elements present that are not present today.
Certainly whatever happens will not follow the ~2008 template.
That is the one thing we can rule-out for sure.
