Guess this is a good time to start this thread.
The models are widely divergent on Invest 93L. The best human guess for landfall at this point is a broad area along the big bend area of Florida, due south of Tallahassee, eastward and southward to the mouth of the Suwannee River at Levy County.
At most, this should be a modest Category 1 at landfall.
This is pretty much in line with everything I’ve seen and heard so far. Only one source I saw said it could possibly be stronger due to the surface temps and if it slows down.
Two much windshear for it to get sufficient organization to get much stronger than Category 1, plus not really a whole lot of time.
Going to need that windshear for the storms coming from further out in the Atlantic. Temps are higher than normal.
Updated tracks, which remain wildly divergent, however the best guess remains the same as before, down the center of the big bend area.
Invest 93L has formed into Tropical Depression 10.
The first official track follows the previous consensus.
Expected to make landfall as a weak Category 1 Hurricane.
Hurricane watches (pink) and Tropical Storm watches (yellow) have just gone up for the indicated parts of Florida.
Somewhat eastward shift of the track, but still well within the big bend area.
Intensity forecasts have increased, with 100 mph winds expected at landfall (Category 2).
So much for a modest Cat 1.
Yep. Category 3 is expected. It’s the potential storm surge that does a lot of damage.
The problem is that it piddled around long enough for the wind shear further up the gulf to lessen, allowing for increased intensification.
Bottom line is to trust the predicted path only to a certain extent.
No. It was supposed to be a weak category 1. Now I’m hearing up to Cat 3. The one source I heard early on might be right.
Not a single one of my Florida friends were ever that confident. They saw what side of the wind sheers that front was developing on, and everything is now happening the way they said it would.
Your friends were spot on. No one I know thought it would stay a tropical storm, especially with the temperatures in the Gulf.
But early on all reports was what the OP reported. Maybe a Cat 1 at landfall. I only saw one report that suggested this storm would go higher than a category 1 storm.
I would note that what I was giving was the model information at that time, no more, no less.
The models are not as reliable when a storm is relatively stationary for several as opposed to when it is actually moving, particularly for intensity.
The models did pick up the intensification, just belatedly.
I’ve learned never to doubt the people on the panhandle. I listen to the persimmon farmers too. lol
I feel so badly for the people going through this. The storm surge is going to be awful.
On the flip side, I don’t see any of them whining about the heat this week.
Wait until the storm passes and the sun comes out full blast. No electricity and high humidity…