2019Q4 and 2019 Annual (Advanced Estimate) GDP

BEA just released the 2019Q4 and 2019 Annual (Advanced Estimate) GDP report [1]:

2019Q4: 2.1
2019Q3: 2.1

2019: 2.3

As of yesterday, some of the estimates were:

Atlanta Fed: 1.7
NY Fed: 1.2
Moody’s: 1.7

I apologize for my lack of usual analysis, work has been a beast lately.

  1. Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
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But the tax cuts?
No recession?

Etc.

Thanks for keeping on Though and good luck :grin:

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I’m seriously starting to wonder what impact the coronavirus could have on growth. It’s continuing to spread as India and Philippines just confirmed their first cases. It could have some serious effects on supply chains depending how bad it gets.

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Especially if flights and trade routes start getting shut down.

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Remember the good old days when anything below 3% was considered anemic?

Worst recovery ever + MAGA = best economy ever!

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Slowest since 2016?

So how will Trump spin this in his tweets today? I think he’ll just say something like “GREAT GROWTH!!! BEST ECONOMY EVER!!!” and his supporters will believe it.

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The Stock Markets showed a one day panic about this at the beginning of the week, but have recovered since. I am guessing the conclusion is that we are not yet sure this will be worse than SARS.

So it beat all the estimates?

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Mnuchin was just quoted as saying that the virus could bring back jobs to America!

Well below what the Trump Administration had been promising but I doubt any economists will be surprised by that.

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It looks like Powell might have shaken bond investors a little by saying they were assessing how it might affect growth. Definitely too early to tell anything. It’s reassuring that the virus has been isolated and grown in a lab and vaccines are already being worked on.

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According to the brain trust in this administration it’s GREAT news for American workers. :man_facepalming:

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Growth! Yeah America!

Was there an impact with SARS and MERS? EBOLA?

I don’t think there were any actual impacts with SARS, but we’ve already surpassed that outbreak. It had about 8,000 cases but a higher fatality rate of like 9-11%. I think this outbreak has FR of maybe 2-3% so far?

It has been confirmed that this coronavirus can spread before patients are symptomatic. I hope we get a handle on it quickly.

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$1trillion deficits and 2.3% GDP growth is MAGA incredible

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Well if you see the world solely in transactional terms, I suppose this is the way one would think.

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Right? We had that growth under Obama without TRILLIONS in debt added every single year!

Edit: yes I know he had three years where deficits were trillion+ but I take into account the economy and unemployment. We have trillions being added when we should be paying off the debt.

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