Wow! ADP Jobs report estimates 497,000 jobs were added in June

Economy
1

ADP is a large private sector payroll processing firm.
Every month it totals the number of paychecks it processes, multiplies by some number and estimates the number of jobs added in the country. I know it sounds questionable but it correlates very strongly with the other jobs data (some of which comes out tomorrow)

According to this week’s report, the private sector added 497,000 non-farm jobs this week. That number is kinda-strong, but it is a VERY big break from the recent trend.
By contrast:

  • 267,000 jobs were added in May, and
  • the Wall St expectation was that the economy slowed and June’s number would be a tiny bit below that.

True, 232,000 of those jobs were in leisure and hospitality but so were a lot of last month’s added-jobs. That industry has been adding over 200,000 jobs/month for several months.

Could the entire travel industry have it wrong?
It seems the unaffected-by-inflation classes are still doing well, well enough that the travel industry is getting ready to sell them french fries and change their sheets.

2

Bidenomics for FTW!

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3

Some of use got a 9% raise out of this last round of lib boot worship. I’ll be going on my 4th vacation this year. :metal:

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4

At a quick glance:
Leisure & hospitality added:

  • added bout 100,000 jobs May-June in 2018
  • lost about 30,000 jobs May-June in 2019 (not COVID-related that was 2020)

So, while month-to-month numbers don’t always mean a lot, 267,000 jobs added in the industry is quite a few.

5

Let’s go Brandon!

6

Okay well, I can’t stand all the good news so, here’s some bad news.

Libs are always making some false claim about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Well, usually it ain’t true.

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7

I’ll be honest, I don’t understand how that graph makes your point.

8

Oh it has nothing to do with jobs. (it’s just bad news)

9

Conventional wisdom says all these available jobs means inflation will not subside. I don’t think we are living in conventional times but we shall see.

10

Good news?

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11

Yes good news. In two ways.

  1. The leisure & hospitality industry is hiring big time 3 months in a row, & significant stronger than can be explained by normal summer hiring.)
  2. It was unexpected by Wall St. Unexpected good news tends to make investors and managers more optimistic and start spending/ investing/expanding.
1 Like