Smyrna
21
Same bull feces…same bulls…different elections…same results.
…all together now…orange man baaa, baaa, baaad. 
1 Like
DougBH
22
I remember that 68% chance Nate gave Hillary the day of the election last time…and seeing it go to 60…50…40…30…
1 Like
WCD9973
23
I love when people confuse approval rating with “this is who I’m gonna vote for”
Not same thing.
The highest black vote GOP has had since 1970’s is 16%
I gurantee you Trump gets below that number
WCD9973
24
Orthodox jews ussally vote Republican.
Orthodox jews make up less the 10% if the 2% of Americans that are jewish.
And a majority of those that are orthodox live in NY and CA. Two states that are going Blue.
Majority of American Jews (a overwhelmingly majority of them) will vote against Trump. Just like last time.
he doesn’t need 20% to win. only about 15% would be enough to prevent biden winning
Chris
26
The most recent Rasmussen Poll from Pennsylvania has Biden up 5% over Trump.
Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 45% - Rasmussen Reports®
1 Like
conan
27
Trump got little over 8 percent in 2016 if my memory serves be correct.
Their are something like 17 million Black voters.
If Trump picks up 10 percent more…that’s 1.7 million vote swing.
conan
28
Check out the polls 4 years ago at this same time. 
Yes, good point.
Here is some more related news from yesterday. A Trump rally in California:
Videos from Jews for Trump caravans in New York. The second video shows an apparent anti-Semetic attack from an ANTIFA:
https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1320439440846643200
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1320435971939201024
Real life continues to shred Biden’s false narratives about Trump.
The jump in Trump’s approval came after rapper 50 Cent endorsed Trump, while Chelsea Handler lectured him about what it means to be black.
50 cents becomes 19 cents under the Biden tax proposals.
More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.
I’m willing to bet the majority of these black voters are not trump supporters.
2 Likes
Boy, are you gonna be upset in 10 days.
Allan
Will Black Trump Supporters Decide the Election?
AVM…
… … … … All Votes Matter.
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I don’t think Trump bumping a couple of percentage points with African-Americans will decide the election.
However a common theme is represented above. The map suggests that Biden can win the election by winning blue and blue leaning states and reach 270. Trump on the other hand has to take all the red and red leaning states AND all the brown tossup states AND STILL poach something from the blue leaning area to get to 270.
IMHO the demographic that is going to tank trump will be Florida seniors that don’t like
(a) being considered expendable in terms of COVID so the stock market can look good while people are without jobs, and
(b) Trumps floating the idea that if he gets reeelected he will make the payroll holiday (that most didn’t want anyway) and make it the law. That means not funding Social Security since those are the taxes being suspended.
Trump loses Florida and it’s game over.
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.WW, PSHS
Let:s revisit this post when the final count is settled.
JayJay
38
You do realize that a 32% chance of winning in Nate’s model actually means he was saying Trump had a reasonable chance to win?
32% chance is an upset but not an unexpected one.
Now he’s got Trump at 13% this time.
Should Trump pull it out this time then yes, Nate didn’t account for something in his model.
He will fix it…like he fixed his model from primary to general. Recall he only gave Trump a 2% chance or so of winning the nomination and very publicly ate crow for that.
Silver is a professional. He actually didn’t “mess up” in 2016, but he will have this time if Trump wins.
JimmyC
39
4 years ago Hillary was +4.3 over Biden, Biden is at +5.1 today. On October 28 Comey announced he was reopening the Clinton email investigation. The chart below is PA in 2016. You can clearly see the effect that had on the race. Also, Clinton was only at 47%. Biden is at 49.6%. There are fewer undecided/3rd party voters this year. 2020 is not 2016.
2 Likes
DougBH
40
Comey also rushed in before the election to state they had found nothing new in Clinton’s emails. Why should that have hurt her?