Will Black Trump Supporters Decide the Election?

According to the most recent poling, Trump has unprecedented support among Black voters:

That figure is several times higher than what Republicans have seen in recent elections. Could a shift in the support of Black voters decide the election?


Trump will have the highest black vote than any other R POTUS candidate.


Trump has improved his support among younger non white voters. It ain’t 46% and it won’t be enough.

According to the link in the OP, Black support has shot up by 20 percentage points since the 538 link:

Mon 10/19 - 25%
Tue 10/20 - 24%
Wed 10/21 - 31%
Thu 10/22 - 37%
Fri 10/23 - 46%

Yeah it’s normal for polls to swing wildly around like that. If you have an inkling about sort of statistics swings like that are a huge red flag and Ras is a pretty unreliable pollster. Why am I even talking about this lol.


Here is another graphic from 538 that should help answer the question in the OP:

If I were advising the Trump campaign with numbers like these, I’d be telling him to do a full court press on every conceivable demographic out there and not focus on one of them. One demographic won’t do ■■■■ to overcome odds like this.

Oh, and he has about 10 days to make up lost ground.

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Rasmussen has been an outlier poll for just about everything when being polled for Trump.

It’s not reliable.

I mean in four days, it swings 84% and you think it’s reliable?

Come on guys…if you don’t know anything about statistics, please please stop pretending you do.

What is it that is causing so many people to make definitive statements about subjects they obviously know nothing about?

Is there no sense of embarrassment generated from doing that?

Let’s ask him. Oh and Candace Owens too I guess.

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Could it? Absolutely!

Somehow polls matter now and then. Interesting.


Yep, the same polls said Hillary would win easily. Scott Adams asked on Twitter if anyone had lied to pollsters about Trump support, and he got hundreds of answers from people saying that they already had.

Meanwhile Trump’s support from Orthodox Jews is up tremendously from 2016:

Biden has made the fine people hoax the cornerstone of his campaign which amounts to falsely accusing Trump of being a racist and an anti-Semite. At the same time Trump’s support is at record levels among Blacks and Orthodox Jews. Actual facts are shredding Biden’s false narrative, which helps Trump among all voters.

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It may take some weeks to weed out the invalid votes lodged for Joe, but fortunately the SC will be constitutionally sound overall, and should get the honest result approved. If so, The minority vote will be instrumental in Trump’s convincing win.

It is cool to be a non-conformist and vote Trump.

You run a flawed algorithm 40,000 times and what kind of result will you get most of the time?

That’s like throwing a biased dice 40,000 times and then imagining that the ratio of 1,2,3 to 4,5,6 in the trials indicates the most likely result, high or low, of a brand new unbiased dice. It’s meaningless.

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trump will get less than 20% of the black vote.

Will it. Absolutely not!


Way less.


That depends if it is indeed flawed.

It is not. And you will find that fact out in ten days.


Vote for the incumbent president who’s the head of a major political party because he’s not political or something.

Trump runs better as an outsider and that is what the media has made him.