That’s what is voluntarry? Getting the vaccine? Yes it is. But when you get the first dose, will you be given a form enroling you in a new study to see how effective a single dose is? Or will you be given a form enfoling you in a new study to see what happens when your second dose is 3 to 6 months later?
Could be they can start to produce it fast enough for people to get their 28 day second dose out of the shipping stream instead of holding in reserve. If that could be done it would help a helluva lot. It remains a discussion, one that admittedly makes me uncomfortable, but nobody is ignoring science.
They are at max production. Any new faclities and equipment will take month if not a year to get up to speed.
They are discussing doing something that goes against science. Using what’s held as reserve for 2nd dose as first dose with the hopes that there will be enough for the second dose. With more first doese,you will need more for second dose. Spiraly down the drain of following science.
I’m not backing it or calling it a good idea, but neither am I calling it a bad idea. Yet. There are other vaccines coming into the pipeline are there not?
I expect there are other variables we haven’t thought of as well.
Biden is not the ultimate arbiter here. Just as Trump was unable to rush approval of the first vaccines until the numbers guys said okay, so will go this discussion. I don’t believe anyone is going to ignore science.
Under that mathematical logic (which I don’t agree with) that you applied to the 14%.
Say 1,000 doses are given. That means 500 people don’t get vaccinated. A new 500 now get Covid who wouldn’t and 3.57 people die (using your multiplier for 140 people = 1 dead, then 500 people/140 = 3.57 per 500). X that by 100 to get a million doses (500,00 vaccinations) and 500,000 get it and 357 die. That’s now acceptable?
Do more people die based on vaccinating more people with lowering the overall effectiveness from 96% to 82%?
Or
Do more people die by vaccinating quickly only 50% of the people but to 96% effectiveness?
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Anyone see the flaw in the mathematical logic above?
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.WW, PSHS
So does this mean I get to put you down as one vote for going against the science that has been done on the vaccine? You know, getting a second dose at a prescribed time?
There is nothing wrong with my math. I’m showing what could happens without second dose. The more people that only get one dose, the higher the possible numbers of my math. Would you say that is correct or in-correct.
Basically what is being done is a big finger to the testing and approval procedure. Guess we can just close down the FDA now since things like that don’t matter anymore.
Only a small percentage of your 14 percent would become infected in the short term, say the first year. By that time there will be enough for everyone right? Many many variables.
We have two different questions going on that will take smarter people than I to answer, but they are mathematical problems. Using your logic I showed that holding back the vaccine to give both shots resulted in more deaths then a single dose at a lower efficacy.
But… moving beyond that.
The problems, as I see it, is thinking of this in terms of a snapshot in time when in actuality we need to examine it in terms of change over time.
There are a couple of different factors that need to be thought through, and it should have already been thought through by this time. One is the medical aspect, 96% v. 82% efficacy. The other is a logistical problem which is a function of manufacturing and distribution.
Manufacturing is being ramped up and millions, hundreds of millions of doses are on the way from both Phizer and Moderna, not counting another vaccine getting a EUA. The manufacturing side of the equation has to determine how many doses can be manufactured over X days, weeks. The logistics side is getting those doses to the place they are needed.
My undergrad degree is in Industrial Technology and part of that was an examination of transition from the traditional manufacturing model (parts on-hand and in local storage) to “Just In Time” manufacturing where the supply line always has product on the way and what is delivered today, is used in manufacturing tomorrow and finished product shipped out. The sample supply chain management principals can be applied to the manufacture of vaccine and its distribution to put doses in the locations they are need to be put in arms.
What that means from a science, manufacturing, distribution perspective is there may not be the need to obtain two doses per person, give one shot and let the other dose sit in a freezer for 3 (Pfizer) or 4 weeks (Moderna) just waiting for the second dose. With a balanced and tuned supply chain a large percentage of those 2nd doses held in reserve can actually be delivered as shots in arms now. That with the understanding that the supply chain will be able to deliver the 2nd dose to be at the correct distributions centers shortly before they are needed for the 2nd dose.
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So in actuality, I’m squarely in the 2 dose regiment as the vaccine was tested to produce maximum efficacy. However science, manufacturing, and supply chain management says that not all those 2nd doses need to sit around for weeks.
Follow the manufacturers approved dosage regime, but tune the logistics.
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.WW, PSHS
They are using what they learned in the clinical trials certainly. I already said I don’t like the idea much and have told you what I know about it. We don’t get to decide here lol.
That isn’t ignoring the science, the science says vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible.
Production continues and continues to increase so there will be more than enough doses to give the second dose as well.
What data we have shows that even with one dose both are well above 50% efficacy at three weeks.
That percentage increases with time even without the second dose as the body goes through the entire transcription and replication phases of antigen specific antibodies and production of the gamma globulins and other immuno globulins (non specific antibodies) has already been ramped up by the first dose as well.
Even if it takes a few extra weeks to get a second dose to everyone this is the most logical route to take.
Whatever J’Biden “decides” is his prerogative. If it’s outside the Operation Warp Speed plan implementation and it goes sideways the next question will be will he and his handlers own it or blame Trump?
It’s a lock if the Covid numbers decline ‘Ol Joey from Scranton will be lauded as a savior of civilization. Lemonhead and Steroid Fredo Cuomo already have the boot licker script written!
Right now we’re in uncharted territory with new science being learned every day. Once we have a more firm grasp on how these things work we can adjust accordingly.