Why is Black support for Trump surging?

The newest Rasmussen poll shows Trump is up to 30% of likely Black voters:

What factors are creating the move towards Trump?

Are Democratic calls to defund police and to end school choice important factors?

Is the prospect of millions of additional immigrants from Latin America with Democratic open-borders policies important?

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Biden leads Trump 92% to 5% in the latest WaPo-Ipsos poll. Soooooooooo … I wouldn’t call this a surge.

I’ll believe these numbers when republicans believe them enough to encourage turnout in minority communities.


Rasmussen :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Every poll has his favor ability at -14, Rasmussen has him even.

No outlier there :roll_eyes:


Oh so NOW we care about polls?

The Washington Post poll is for registered voters not likely voters, and it is clear that they included a lot of leading questions.

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I trust the Fox Polls more than Rasmussen.

NEW Fox polls:

Biden up 9 in Michigan
Biden up 11 in Pennsylvania
Biden up 13 in Minnesota


Here is the note for the Fox poll:

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with approximately 1000 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerly known as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research ®. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. When necessary, minor weights are applied to age, race, education and gender variables to bring the sample into conformity with the most reliable demographic profiles. Fox News polls are not weighted by political party. Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. Anderson Robbins Research changed its name to Beacon Research in 2019; the polling team is unchanged since 2011.

The Rasmussen poll matches the demographics for party and it is limited to likely voters. Those may be key factors given the tiny portion of people who answer the phone these days.

Ras is in their cyclical ramp up to 50% approval. They’ll start dialing it back again next week. Garbage poll. Everyone knows it. Look at Ras’ twitter. They troll like crazy. They’re not a serious organization.

Trump is not surging with Black Americans.


Ras has Biden +2 nationally and +4 OH this week. No way he’s higher in Ohio than he is nationally. Trash poll.

Beyond their hidden unskewing / weighing for party math, Ras only hits landlines.

Because a whole lot of blacks in this country are becoming aware they’ve been fed a pile of racist bull ■■■■ from Democrats for decades.


This seems like an outlier

Not by any actual definition of the word.

Not this unskewed polls nonsense again. Most polls do not weight for political party. Unlike sex or age, political party identification is fluid. Depending on how they feel at a particular point in time there are those who shift between identifying as dem and rep.

Not really, there are a few people who waiver occasionally but most people generally support one party or the other through most of their adult lives.

I doubt they are optimistic because they feel Trump is going to get re-elected - although some may be. Either way, this poll seems like an outlier because it seems different from every other poll in the gap between two candidates.

Besides, if you want to unskew, the polls may be undersampling Democrats these days.

A lot of people try to be good citizens. When their party is obviously sliding deeper and deeper into lawlessness and insurrection, or diving headlong into the same, good people will peel off.

So when multiple polls come up with similar results that is now defined as “an outlier”?