That’s the next 100 days.
1 Like
Seriously. EOs are so easily overridden by the next president.
He needs to install a lot of those initiatives through Congress as actual legislation.
3 Likes
That’ll require him to play politik. And he’s not great at politik. Gonna have to grease some hands, both republican and democrat to get anything passed in the modern congress.
how many were foreign born?
Allan
tomorrows 1q2025 GDP announcement.
good news or bad?
my prediction is -1.0% growth.
Allan
St Louis Fed: predicts +3.1%
New York Fed predicts: +2.7%
Atlanta Fed predicts: -2.7%
The Atlanta Fed model is most closely followed.
None of these involve any (current) subjective inputs.
All of them are just mathematical models that,
when they were created (in the past),
correlated well with GDP in the past
the first one are too high, the last one too low.
you didnt give your prediction based upon what you know.
exports will be down, thats why i am low balling it a -1.0%
Allan
Pledged the possibility. Right now so much of it is pie in the sky. Primarily not because they are unlikely to do it but because they are unlikely to so it until the tarrifs dust settles and the markets stabilize.
Next time you’re found
With your chin on the ground
There a lot to be learned
So look around
Just what makes that little old ant
Think he’ll move that rubber tree plant
Anyone knows an ant can’t
Move a rubber tree plant
But he’s got high hopes
He’s got high hopes
He’s got high apple pie
In the sky hopes
So any time you’re gettin’ low
‘Stead of lettin’ go
Just remember that ant
Oops, there goes another rubber tree plant
Oops, there goes another rubber tree plant
Oops, there goes another rubber tree plant
When troubles call
And your back’s to the wall
There a lot to be learned
That wall could fall
Once there was a silly old ram
Thought he’d punch a hole in a dam
No one could make that ram scram
He kept buttin’ that dam
‘Cause he had high hopes
He had high hopes
He had high apple pie
In the sky hopes
So any time you’re feelin’ bad
‘Stead of feelin’ sad
Just remember that ram
Oops, there goes a billion kilowatt dam
Oops, there goes a billion kilowatt dam
Oops, there goes a billion kilowatt dam
All problems just a toy balloon
They’ll be bursted soon
They’re just bound to go pop
Oops, there goes another problem, kerplop
Oops, there goes another problem, kerplop
Oops, there goes another problem, kerplop
Kerplop
Allan
2 Likes
We concur on that.
About a month ago I posted something like"
"Right now is tomato planting season.
*~40% of US tomatoes are grown in the *
You’re a tomato farmer.
You don’t know if your Mexican competitors will face a 0% tariff or a 20% tariff.
You don’t know if the Farm Labor Service you use for pickers is gonna have a labor shortage or not.
– How many acres do you plant?"
My guess:
+2.2%
Trump did his own performance evaluation in front of a huge rally audience in Michigan last night.
It was awesome!!
1 Like
close but no cigar. -0.3 is not a good number.
Allan
economy is shrinking.
could be a one off or a trend.
i guess we shall see next quarter.
Allan
I’d like to send my heartfelt congratulations to President Trump for taking an economy that grew by about 2% last year into negative territory in his very first 100 days. It’s a darn economic miracle over here.
4 Likes
Yes indeed, imports are a part of the GDP calculation.
Hmm if imports reduce GDP
then it’s probably best to pursue a long-term policy of minimizing them, huh?
1 Like
Look like excluding the surge in imports the real GDP grew 4.7%
(That’s good right?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/us-economy-contracts-for-first-time-since-2022-on-imports-surge?srnd=homepage-americas
