First I realize that that there’s no certainty of what will things be like in 10-20 years from now but I do think there are some predictions that we can conclude with a relatively high degree of probability.
Here’s my list:
Commercial real estate. If your employees can work at home why pay high rent and maintenance on a building that you don’t need?
Air Travel. Technology has significantly diminished the need for business travel. Even is we do get beyond this pandemic it will likely be a long time before people are going to sardine themselves on an airplane.
Cruise lines. Even if there is an effective vaccine, is there a worse place to be if another COVID strikes?
All leisure and entertainment - movies, sports, restaurants, theme parks, etc. How many of these business and related industries will be out of business by the time an effective vaccine is widely implemented? How long will it take before most people will be willing to go back?
Education. Why pay exorbitant tuition and property taxes for teachers, buildings, etc., when you can get the same or similar results online.
I don’t give a ■■■■ who is in office, it’s unquestionable that there will be continued economic pains especially on small businesses and jobs associated with them for the next year or two. What are your thoughts?
“Once the world’s largest cruise ship, Pullmantur’s MS Sovereign appears headed for the scrap-yard after the Spanish company filed for bankruptcy last month amid the COVID-19 induced global shut-down of the cruise industry.”
My buddy’s travel business is getting crushed. Everybody already knows what the risks are and how to minimize them. Maybe government should step out of the way and let people be responsible for their own health? After someone gets vaccinated, is their any value added to wearing a mask?
Travel in a more broad sense fits under my #'s 2-4. I think that there will be portions of that industry that will be permanently impacted and some of those jobs will unfortunately never come back.
The Airline and Tourism sector would be heavily impacted by all this. Espically if a Democrat WH is led and we have more lockdowns look at what is happening in NYC. NYC is a giant mess.
Those Democrats in NYC can beg as much as they can for people to come back but i dont think would be back at all in those same places let alone with the rental prices being so high.
Some of it is self inflicted. Delta is leaving every middle seat open. Which means they are probably taking a loss on every flight. What if there is no middle seat? Is it okay for two strangers to sit in close proximity but not three strangers?
I’m an avid film buff and theatrical distribution was already trending downward long before COVID-19. Given the pandemic, I just don’t see movie theaters surviving, especially when millions are perfectly content watching everything on their phones. At least we’re in a true golden age of long-format television, but I’m thankful I sought out restoration screenings of classics when I had the chance.
It’s a good list - unarguable, in fact, especially in the short term.
Education has some nuance - for example, MBA applications are up as they often are in down economies, but since much of the value there is in the network you build, online programs have to adjust to accommodate.
I would add to your list that this is a major disruptive to clothing companies.
I normally shell out a good bit for business clothing, but I haven’t bought a suit or oxfords this year (which I hate). Brooks Brothers is bankrupt. Cheaper retailers like Tailored Brands (Men’s Wearhouse, Joseph A Bank parent), J Crew, Lord & Taylor, and Ann Taylor are bankrupt as well.
On the positive side, remote healthcare is growing quickly. Teladoc/Livongo are in the midst of a merger to create a $40 billion tech-enabled health provider.
Professional services are going to be impacted - the travel requirements for consultants and attorneys and accountants will be lower, and perhaps, more accessible to working women in their 30s, which will lower the percentage of people leaving these positions.
And conventions. When a serious convention comes into town, hotels fill up, restaurants boom, caterers bust their asses, shuttle services double their capacities, movers, truckers, electricians, delivery services, entertainers …
My industry is involved in telehealth expansion, and calling it a “supernova” undersells just how massive the undertaking truly is. Every health organization on the planet is attempting to incorporate technology.
Cities will be over as we know them today, a lot of people will move to the burbs and even further out. And why not less taxes, often better school systems, less crime. The allure of the city was always for work, social mingling, and things to do. Covid-19 just took out all of the reasons to stay, and even if years from now if its eradicated more businesses will use telecommute. Were I work we are all 100% remote now, and from what I am hearing they are not going to rent the four floors our company was using to operate from. So the company I am with save a ton of money not having to pay rent.
Theaters are getting crushed and I don’t see them as well as cruise ships ever going back to peak even if they somehow survive. Air travel will eventually get back up and going. There is going to be a boom in the psychiatrist field as well as anti-depression medicine for years to come. It is going to completely change everything into more online and a less face to face world. All forms of entertainment will take a huge hit, especially the ones with indoor crowds.
I think the biggest change will be the migration from the cities to the burbs over the next few years as telecommute work soars and demand for office space plummets.
That’s a great space to work in for sure with so many facets.
My friend just finished up a project doing UX design around a smart injector, which calculates injection depth for you, sends it to an app, and tells you over time if you’re doing good or if you need to go shallower or deeper.
Excellent point. I didn’t even think about how more people working at home impacts the clothing industry. Absolutely crazy. The clothing industry probably could be #3 on my list. Where would you rank it?
I put theaters #4 four on my list since I think there’s a probability that in time they could come back to some degree or another. Short term, there’s still going to be more pain.
