What happens when Iran's oil production ends?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-could-cushion-iran-oil-shock-not-broader-disruption-2024-10-02/

Israel is going to return the favor to Iran - but Iran’s “Iron Dome” doesn’t exist and Iran is going to burn … it doesn’t look like the loss of Iranian oil will be too terrible if OPEC does the right things for the west- but that’s the trick…

If IDF attacks Iranian oil, the above-ground structures (and thereby the extraction and delivery of oil) will be wrecked, but that will eventually get repaired – hopefully by a less terroristic government. So it will be temporary. And Iran is kind of far down on the list of oil producing nations, so I believe the initial impact will be more emotional than anything else.

USA could increase its production and make up most of the difference if we wanted to.

Gasoline goes to $10/gallon if there is a major reduction in oil leaving the Persian Gulf.

An Iranian retaliatory strike with conventional missiles is likely to destroy anything of military value in Israel.

Expect a temporary spike in price. But I believe price recovery will be fairly rapid.

I guess you missed the news about the Iranian retaliatory strike a few days ago. Didn’t destroy anything.

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Seriously?? You seem to be grossly out of touch with reality. While Israel will be able to have its way with Iran, Iran has already demonstrated that it will not be able to touch Israel with anything meaningful.

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But, but, but Iran will send more, which simply means Israel will shoot down more. :crazy_face:

:sweat_smile: In what universe?

Well they did manage to kill a Palestinian in the West Bank. Don’t think they were the intended target but eh lol.

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As Iran is about to find out, a tit for tat with Israel would be self-defeating. Israel is able to do some serious damage to whatever infrastructure in Iran that it chooses. In the coming days we will see what Israel will choose to destroy. The strikes will be targeted and highly effective.

Iran might or might not choose to lob some more missiles at Israel, to little or no effect. Iran would then invite another round of targeted and highly effective strikes in retaliation.

I wonder how long it will take Iran to realize that it is getting the short end of the stick. :astonished:

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do you remember the commanders of Hezbollah falling one after the other?

what makes us think the Iranian overlords are immune?

the nuclear sites and scientists, oil wells and refineries are easy targets as well…

the Ayatollahs and Comrade Biden are allied in saying “oh no, don’t attack us Israel”

Tomorrow at sunset, the new year celebration is finished - but they might wait until after Shabbat

I think the short end will very apparent sooner rather than later

Biden won’t allow it…not before election anyway.

Biden can’t stop it- and if he decides to make Israel use the weapons they have now instead of the requested 2000 pound bombs, Iran will glow in the dark…

besides, they already have a bunch of them

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-has-sent-israel-thousands-2000-pound-bombs-since-oct-7-2024-06-28/

It would be better if they destroy the Iranian Navy, take out their airfields, destroy all of their port facilities (on the Caspian too), and all of their oil export facilities.

That would be better for us.

Off the top of my head I am not sure what would be best for Israel.
Whatever weakens the regime the most internally I suppose.

The Iranian people HATE the regime and would replace it in a heartbeat with a not-Israel-obsessed government if given the chance.

Source:

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That’s why I think Israel best option is to target regime and not infrastructure…which hurts Iranian people.

Not expert nor do I pretend to be one.

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Well … Biden will shake his finger and say they can’t do it… And if they want, they’ll do it anyway.

Biden has no say in this.

America first!

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Yeah he does…he’s still the president until Jan 21st.