Here is what victory looked like in Japan in 1945:

Here is what victory looked like in Vietnam in 1975:

“America stands with Ukraine. We stand with Ukraine until victory is won. And we stand with Nato.”–Nancy Pelosi

What does victory look like?

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To me, victory would mean Russia would no longer be able to invade a neighboring country like Ukraine.

Getting Putin to withdraw and end the invasion would LOOK nice, but if he’s simply allowed to retreat and rebuild, then it’s a hollow victory.

And anything short of Russia leaving Ukraine would simply look bad to me.

The last American victory on that scale was the Japanese surrender in World War II. Is a defeat of Russia a reasonable target?

The US has fought a major war in Korea, a war in Vietnam, two wars in Iraq, and a war in Afghanistan.

Korea was a draw. Iraq is resulted in a defeat for Sadaam Husein, but ISIS and other groups are still active there. Vietnam and Afghanistan arguably resulted in defeats for the US.

General Milley is saying that that war in Ukraine will last many years. Recent wars in have cost trillions of dollars and killed millions without achieving a victory.

A victory? For Ukraine a total victory would look like Russia leaving all of Ukraine including the Donbas and Crimea while having assurances from the West that it would be protected by them from any further attack by Russia.

In reality, a victory may mean some loss of land to Russia such as Crimea and a portion of the East in exchange for protection agreements from the West. That would mean that Ukraine’s territorial integrity would be protected in perpetuity.

it looks like this

https://images.app.goo.gl/kKKDiGskdqq5XXMg9

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Yup- that would be a total victory.

and notice, russia is still there, it has not been defeated. wierd huh?

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Very true, RE Japan. And that’s what I had in mind.

Is this reasonable? It’s a far reach. Very far. I’m not hesitant to admit that.

It may not have to be a military defeat that accomplishes this, BTW. It may be a 194-against-one dogpile of world nations all aligning to force Russia to behave.

And I recognize that such an outcome is an equally long shot as a complete military defeat.

A third option would be a complete turnover of Russian government with the new leadership vowing that Russia would never do this again. (And again, an equally long shot.)

Okay, victory is defined by a map of Ukraine.

If many of the world’s cities end up as radioactive craters is still a victory?

Yeah yeah. Putin is trying to use his nukes to say he can ride roughshod over any non-NATO country. Ukraine and the West called his bluff and here we are.

fear is the mind killer.

The last successful occupation of Russia was the Mongols.

Napoleon controlled most of Europe outside of Russia. He entered Russia with about 600,000 men. 23,000 left Russia in the winter of 1813. The Germans had similar results in World War II.

Russia has had an annoying ability to win grinding wars of attrition. Here what their last victory looked like:

image

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oh look, i found one that you would consider victory, and your buddy is posing in it

https://images.app.goo.gl/raKDt4hgaxj8hPoh7

IMHO Russia at a minimum wants a land bridge to Crimea. The conflict in the Donbas area has been going on for some time. Zelensky has already said that he believes that a victory would mean not giving up any territory and that Russia pulls back behind the Ukraine boarders as they existed before the invasion. And that Ukraine is secure that Russia will not invade in the future. I am not sure that Milley is correct when he says this could go on for years. War is expensive and if the sanctions work as advertised Putin will be cash strapped in the next few months. If he has to pull back because of funding it might change the whole picture. I am not convinced that China will bail him out. Xi does not want sanctions on trade with the US and/or the EU.

No one is invading Russia.

advertised is a good word, because they certainly aren’t designed to do jack

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Yeah I think Ukraine has the advantage at this point in terms of manpower, incoming weaponry and morale. They will wear Russia down with ongoing casualties that are already pretty immense for a two month old war. Add to that the increasing economic blow to Russia and it doesn’t look good for Putin. I could be wrong though and some x factor may change it- chem weapons? Universal conscription of Russians? But the way its going now is not in Russia’s favor.

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Yes, we are playing Russian roulette with the lives of hundreds of millions and our opponent is an evil, soulless killer.

How does this end well?

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Yes, the financial sanctions were supposed to be a nuclear option that would cause the Russian economy to collapse. The nuclear option has turned out to be a dud.

Proposed European sanctions against Russian oil and gas are far more likely to destroy the economy of the Europe and the US than that of Russia.

A negotiated settlement of some kind. I think this is the best case scenario.

  1. Ukraine formally hands over Crimea. A 10 kilometer wide DMZ is set up between Crimea and Ukrainian mainland.

  2. Ukraine gives up some small amounts of eastern territory near the Russian border. Once again, a 10 km wide DMZ is set up on the new borders.

  3. Russia withdraws from all Ukrainian territory not included in land transfer. Russia agrees to pay half-reparations (basically they cover half of the cost) for damages to Ukrainian infrastructure while Ukraine pays for the rest on its own.

  4. Russia formally recognizes Ukraine sovereignty and independence in perpetuity. Puts them on the hook legally thanks to this being a treaty rather than an “agreement.”

  5. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for a period of ten years. If they desire to join NATO after that time the treaty stipulates that representatives from NATO, Russia, and Ukraine will meet in neutral territory to review the application, come with processes that guarantee security for both Ukraine and Russia. NATO will agree not to station any nuclear weapons in Ukrainian territory as a show of good faith before negotiations begin.

  6. Ukraine will not be barred from purchasing any weapons systems from any nation it needs for its own defense. Russia formally recognizes Ukraine’s right to do so as a sovereign state. The only caveat to this is that Ukraine will agree to never introduce nuclear weapons into its military so long as Russia respects its sovereignty. Ukraine will remain as a declared non-nuclear state in the NPT.

That’s just me thinking quickly about it. Overall Ukraine gets more out of the treaty than Russia does because Russia started the aggression.