Looks like it bottomed at -1.5% or -2.75% depending on which ya wanna use.
(or did you want Y-o-Y?)
for the last 6 months inflation is under 2% a year
july 0.0
august 0.1
september 0.4
october 0.4
november 0.1
december -0.1
Reagan was crowing about “Morning in America” in 1984 with a 7+% unemployment rate that went over 8% in 1986.
The steps to control inflation were started in 1976 and continued until 1985. Reagan didn’t do anything except 6 consecutive years of tax increases on the middle class and working poor. FICA taxes were 2% before Reagan raised them to their present 7.65% rate, making sure every working person had every single dollar taxed by 300%+ more, while giving the upper income filers a tax cut.
The GOP is still an anti worker party to this day.
1 Like
A case could reasonably be made (indeed has been asserted) that Volcker’s actions were so strong and decisive nothing Reagan did really mattered and we would have had the same result as if Jimmy Carter had won re-election.
What we know for certain is
- Reagan’s predecessors (including Jimmy Carter) tried to fight inflation with wage and price controls, gas rationing
- Reagan’s predecessors (including Jimmy Carter) tried to save the economy using measures that increased demand and punished the supply side.
Both of those policy sets are looney toon solutions to inflation. From an economic science perspective they are are no better-informed than rejecting evolution believing in seven-day creation, using new age magic crystals to cure cancer etc… In fact they are not only looney toon, they tend to cause inflation.
It would be unreasonable to conclude “Reagan didn’t do end inflation” = “The 80s recovery would have happened even without Reagan.” (A does not equal B)
we had the covid recession (major) the first two quarters of 2020.
we had the recession this year (minor) the first 2 quarters of 2022.
those are facts.
Allan
i noted this in the forum back in July when it the slowing was beginning.
Allan
You lost me.
You asked about GDP
I answered in terms of GDP
You responded with something about CPI
(Not disagreeing, you just lost me is all)
The ankle biters and their embarrassment of being so awfully wrong, every chance they get. Marvel at how they (D)efend the wagons. 
1 Like
stagflation requires.
1 high unemployment
2 high inflation
3 recession
does the US economy at present time met those requirements.
in june 2022 we had two of the three.
now zero of 3.
Allan
From the official BLS CPI report today
Nov.2022-Dec.2022 (not annualized)
- All items . . . -0.1%
- Gasoline, unleaded regular . . . -9.6%
- All items less food and energy . . . 0.3%
You tell me what happened.
1 Like
people dont eat food or drive a gas automobile.
inflation is all prices, you dont get to pick and choose.
everyone eats and most people drive.
Allan
so, what happened in December?
deflation.
Allan
gas ratioing was in response to gas shortages, not inflation.
Oh well if you formulate an opinion, ignore the data and try to make things fit a narrative you might say that. (Like a Christian trying to prove young earth creationism
But look at the numbers AND THEN decide what happened you would probably say
“Sales from the SPR drove gas prices artificially down. But otherwise prices still went up. Current inflation is still in-line with a multi-decade high.”
1 Like
the july core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) was 295.275
todays number was 300.974
thats a 6 month change of 1.9 % or 3.8% annualized.
over the last 3 months it was up from 299.471 or 2% on an annualize basis
hardly stagflation levels
so to recap over the last 6 months
with food and energy inflation is running at an under 2% annual rate
without it its still running under 4%
and over the last 3 moths its slowed even more.
no stagflation…
july??
the first 6 month of last year inflation was high. no denying it. but for teh last 6 months it wasnt. no denying that either.
