No, I think by the time it’s said and done it’s going to be 20-50x the earliest estimates with at least 25-30% of the country showing antibodies once we roll out the nationwide titer testing and get a few million results from randomized locations all across the country, likely even more.
The big question that remains is how much immunity will be present with a titers above/below X.
If strong immunity is prevalent among most a recurrence will be minor at best.
Knowing what we now know about when this virus emerged I’m all but certain the first cases probably arrived between Dec-15/Dec 30 so the pandemic was simply inevitable.
Remember we didn’t even have the Genome of this virus until Dec 31, a test a few days later but only in enough numbers to test then “suspected cases” and those involved in tracking/tracing for close association with the repatriated cases.
We didn’t even have confirmation of a single organic case in the US until January 30th and very likely many hundreds or even thousands of carriers had slipped into the country in the six weeks prior completely undetected.
Remember China and WHO hid the fact there was clear evidence of “community spread” until Jan 31 in spite of proof being provided weeks earlier by Taiwan and with the rapid spread that went unreported in China and remains so to this day it was obvious they knew at least 4-6 weeks prior.
