We hit a milestone We now have two times as many that recovered from it then those that died with CV

tnt · 2020-04-26T18:19:10.884Z

conan:

And I also find it ironic. with less then .02 percents of populations out of 330 plus million people that died from CV you know 2 of them?

I live in NJ and have friends in NYC. So…we’re what, like half of the cases in the US?

As I said, I didn’t know them personally.

I know about 8 people tangentially who have died of COVID.

Two people from my town, one of whom I saw at our weekend coffee shop just about every weekend. Knew him enough to chat.

Two close friends had parents die, both in homes.

The two young people I already mentioned,

A music instructor who my daughter’s drum teacher knew somehow. (this was another person who passed almost immediately upon going to the hospital, which is odd).

Maybe that’s it…7…I think I’m forgetting someone.

I know a handful of people who had COVID and recovered. I know more who probably had COVID but never got tested, including an employee.

Honestly, I think individual geographic location colors our views on this pandemic. It’s a much more ever-present thing for people in my region. It literally feels like it’s everywhere.

conan · 2020-04-26T18:32:33.290Z

Yes, but you don’t know their health history…whether they had some preexisting illness.

Sadly I’m knowing more and more people that’s dying.

As that chart that I’ve been posting. do you expect that 8 thousand less New Yorker’s died of other illness from same time last year? Or are they reclassifying those deaths? And if so why? What gain do they have from heart disease to CV? Or from cancer to CV? Or diabetes to CV?

Are we going to see tens of thousand less deaths from those diseases this year then last?

TheDoctorIsIn · 2020-04-26T18:33:58.843Z

The chart that you’ve been posting is not limited to just deaths from illness. Did you notice that part?

It is unquestionable that there have been less homicides and accidents since the shutdown started.

For example, there hasn’t been a single homicide in Miami in 7 weeks. How do you think that compares to last year?

conan · 2020-04-26T19:20:00.544Z

Doesn’t change the fact that it dropped from 13 thousand between mid March to mid April to about 5000…and CV have filled in that 8000 deaths.

Deny it all you want…but doesn’t change those facts.

mobulis · 2020-04-26T19:53:12.635Z

conan:

What are you rambling on about?

CV saved about 8000 people in NY state from dying from other causes last month.

what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

WuWei · 2020-04-26T20:00:45.740Z

Plagiarism. And problematic. And hypocritical.

mobulis · 2020-04-26T20:56:29.247Z

WuWei:

Plagiarism. And problematic. And hypocritical.

Yep.
Nope
Nope.

WildRose · 2020-04-26T21:33:29.643Z

By watching the daily briefings and keeping up with the “Americans Tested” numbers on several sites.

Total Test Conducted in U.S.

5,184,635

That was an increase of about 1.2M over early Wednesday Afternoon.

conan · 2020-04-26T21:34:46.113Z

Wow…someone got triggered.

kermode · 2020-04-26T21:46:21.581Z

WildRose:

By watching the daily briefings and keeping up with the “Americans Tested” numbers on several sites.

Total Test Conducted in U.S.

5,184,635

That was an increase of about 1.2M over early Wednesday Afternoon.

And I suppose that’s causing what looks like a 2nd peak for the country as a whole.
The figure I’ve heard most often among the “experts” is 10 times the actual number of infected vs the confirmed.
Do you think that sounds about right?
Should it matter as it relates to the timing of mitigation lifting?
I don’t think we really know where we’re at - and that’s what worries me the most.

WildRose · 2020-04-26T21:56:36.722Z

No, I think by the time it’s said and done it’s going to be 20-50x the earliest estimates with at least 25-30% of the country showing antibodies once we roll out the nationwide titer testing and get a few million results from randomized locations all across the country, likely even more.

The big question that remains is how much immunity will be present with a titers above/below X.

If strong immunity is prevalent among most a recurrence will be minor at best.

Knowing what we now know about when this virus emerged I’m all but certain the first cases probably arrived between Dec-15/Dec 30 so the pandemic was simply inevitable.

Remember we didn’t even have the Genome of this virus until Dec 31, a test a few days later but only in enough numbers to test then “suspected cases” and those involved in tracking/tracing for close association with the repatriated cases.

We didn’t even have confirmation of a single organic case in the US until January 30th and very likely many hundreds or even thousands of carriers had slipped into the country in the six weeks prior completely undetected.

Remember China and WHO hid the fact there was clear evidence of “community spread” until Jan 31 in spite of proof being provided weeks earlier by Taiwan and with the rapid spread that went unreported in China and remains so to this day it was obvious they knew at least 4-6 weeks prior.

SixFoot · 2020-04-26T21:59:49.865Z

I hear 9 out of every 10 who die of the China Virus had preexisting illnesses.

BBC News

Coronavirus: Nine in 10 dying have existing illness

Heart disease is the most common underlying condition, followed by dementia and respiratory illness.

JimmyC · 2020-04-26T22:02:59.185Z

WildRose:

By watching the daily briefings and keeping up with the “Americans Tested” numbers on several sites.

Total Test Conducted in U.S.

5,184,635

That was an increase of about 1.2M over early Wednesday Afternoon.

Your Wednesday number must be off. During Thursday’s White House briefing VP Pence said “On the subject of testing: At the present moment, we have reports of 4.93 million tests having been performed across America”. Even if that was the number as of Wednesday there is no way there could have been a 1.2M increase in the number of tests since then; if so we’d be at over 6M tests now.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-31/

conan · 2020-04-26T22:04:13.975Z

Again it lines up with other information that’s been out there.

WildRose · 2020-04-26T22:08:22.825Z

No, the number isn’t off and it wasn’t even my number, I took it from a poster I replied to who provided the link.

We have tested 4 million people since April 1st. We were testing about 750k per week then. That’s an average of 1.2 million per week and we’re adding somewhere around 100-150k in capacity each week as new lab’s come online and that increase gains each week as more and more labs come online and more and more tests are distributed beyond the areas hardest hit so we’re getting a much better representative sample from the nation as a whole.

I trust the numbers coming out of Cornell, if you have a better source please provide them.

kermode · 2020-04-26T22:17:28.133Z

I don’t dispute you estimate. It’s as good as any, really.
My concern is that since we’re flying blind how do we know when the right time to reduce each mitigation should happen. I suppose we can use the stress on the medical system as the gauge, but by then another spike has already happened. I just don’t know.

As far as the history is concerned, I really don’t care about that now. As much as I hate Trump I don’t blame him for keeping the virus from exploding like it has. I don’t think any President could have stopped it.
What I care about now is what are the plans going forward and who the hell is in charge of that stuff. We’re going to need like 3 Billion N95 masks and so far I’ve seen a federal contract for 39 Million. Who’s in charge of making that happen?
There are a bunch of food plants shutting down threatening the food supply and disruptions in the supply chain. Who’s in charge of making sure the food industry workers are safe and changes to supply chains are happening?
Who’s in charge of getting facilities built and ready to pump out vaccines once the final specs are validated?
Stuff like that is what I’d like to hear from our Leaders.

I’m lucky in that I’m retired and have no financial worries. I can only imagine the stress that working folks are under. We need a lot of competent leadership going forward for those people.

WuWei · 2020-04-26T22:26:57.300Z

conan:

Wow…someone got triggered.

It’s cut and paste.

WuWei · 2020-04-26T22:28:48.979Z

I’ve seen that as well. Italy estimated the same thing a while back, I believe.

SixFoot · 2020-04-26T22:32:59.104Z

conan:

Again it lines up with other information that’s been out there.

With what a lot of us have been saying from the beginning too.

WildRose · 2020-04-27T04:42:38.843Z

We’re not flying blind we have a very good understanding of the disease now.

It generally runs it’s course in about 15 days so after 30 days of lockdown we should be well over the hump.

We “flattened the curve” about two weeks ago and where the worst outbreaks have been the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and admissions to ICU have cratered along with new deaths which confirms it.

We’ve still got a lot to learn but this much is pretty well known. We also now have effective treatments and adequate testing capability to ensure it’s a measured, phased, and successful restart.

Most importantly we know exactly who is most of risk of serious/critical illness and death and they can easily be protected while the rest of the country goes to work.

We don’t need to build facilities to make vaccines, we’ve had them for fifty years.

What percentage of the Nation’s meat industry has been shut down?

This illness was never as dangerous as the panic the media induced over it.

Panic eliminates rational thinking and reaction.