e7alr
5496
We used to consider smoke and flame operations part of NBC also. Back in the 80s every platoon in Europe had to have an NBC qualified junior NCO. We were responsible for operating and maintaining the platoon’s NBC equipment, providing the platoon with unit level NBC training, and in a war setting, operating the detection equipment, sending the NBC reports and supervising decontamination operations. It was an additional duty and we went to a course for it there in Germany, It included smoke and flame operations, including improvised flame defensive weapons.
They are probably chopping these to the units with less organic weaponry.
I’m aware, I was the NBC NCO for my unit at schofield. We didn’t have thermobaric artillery as part of the MTOE.
That said, you’re also wrong about it not being usefull in the offense. Used properly it makes a great system to clear minefields, which if Russia had done in Vulhedar instead of using it to rubble buildings they may have gotten closer to.
Ukraine has captued a couple of them, if they are thinking straight they will hold them and the thermbarics for the opening of the offensive and use them on the point of attack to clear trenches, minefields and anything else that happens to be there.
e7alr
5498
You’re quite right it has unique advantages against defensive obstacles and strong points. Not a lightning war weapon to run along with the Cav or a mech task force moving fast.
very true. point of attack, obstacles, or against a counter attack would be about it. Although I would prefer DPICM for the counter attack. Too bad we won’t give Ukraine any.
e7alr
5501
That is why I think they are dispersing them to these units, probably on the more likely avenues of approach to the more likely targets. I think all the talk about Crimea is a deception. I think they are coming for the center, with the objective of reaching all the way to the Azov coast.
if it were me I’d hit Polohy and run SE to Mariopal while maintaing southward pressure on the entire southern line. I think its too late for melitopol. They should have gone for it last summer when they did exactly what I said they would because it made the least strategic sense. It was a mere shell then.
Orygun
5503
Pretty sure the Russians believe that too as there are significant defensive lines there.
bottom line is they don’t have to take crimea, if they do thngs right the Russians will leave it
conan
5505
Really…home base of Russian Black sea fleet?
Not expert nor do I pretend to be one…but that sounds like whole lot of BS.
3 Likes
Orygun
5506
If…Ukraine can mount a serious counter offensive that splits russian forces east and west and isolates the area south of Kherson, and Zaorizhzhia, I think they will be able to sweep through and take all the land north of Crimea. Then I’m not sure what Ukraine will do. Focus on sweeping Russia out of the Donbas or mount an attack on Crimea.
Orygun
5507
They don’t have to take Crimea to make it very challenging to supply. Make the Kerch bridge unusable and you suddenly need to supply it by ship. All the Russian residents there would be terrified and looking for a way out. In some ways it looks simpler to cause huge problems to Crimea than to try and recapture the rest of the Donbas.
1 Like
Not a difficult propsition.
Block the northern entries into Crimea, destroy the Kirch Bridge, destroy any ferry landings, flood the zone with naval drones, lob missiles and arty at anything in Crimea resembling a military target, cut off the water and wait.
e7alr
5509
The city is symbolic, but reaching the coast and cutting the occupied territory in half accomplishes about what taking the Mississippi did in the Civil War. All the forces to the South would be in a very tenuous position, for logistics and maneuver. Ukraine would control their flank and have them pinned against the coast.
Orygun
5510
They estimate about 200,000 Russians have moved into the Crimea since Russia captured it in 2014. I wonder how many of them are thinking about exiting Crimea before the counteroffensive. Things are gonna get weird soon.
in my opinion, that would be stupid. They can win Crimea without going into Crimea
Orygun
5512
By mounting an attack I mean setting up ways to destroy the Kerch bridge and supply landing sites as well as bombing military targets in Crimea. I agree that an actual ground assault would be dumb for quite a while.
1 Like
Orygun
5513
Honestly the Donbas seems more complicated. We are really talking about a few major cities now-Donetsk and Luhansk and a couple smaller ones. They will be very hard to directly attack as they are fortresses. And cutting off supply to them would be very hard as well. I wonder about the planning for that.
They can do that while they roll up the rest of what’s been captured since Feb22. Put them right back at the preinvasion borders and at that point “talks” would not be about what Russia keeps, but about what Russia leaves.
if it were me… its a coin toss, Donbass or Crimea. I think I would push for Russia to leave Donbass and for Crimea to be a demilitarized autonimous region of Ukraine with no physical connection to Russia. For a price… say free oil and gas for as long as they’re there, I’d even consider letting them hold their base in Sevastopal.
Orygun
5515
I do think if Ukraine reaches the coast they will put maximum pressure on Crimea through bombing campaigns. It will be very interesting to see how the Russians living there react.
