there is nothing resolvable atm.
russia believes it can hold on to all occupied territory and demands ukraine recognize that prerequisite to talks.
ukraine believes it can kick russia out of ukraine completely and demands that as prerequisite to talks.
before talks can start, somebody has to lose faith
Samm
5478
Which brings us back to how are you going to make them do that? Who is in charge of them?
Camp
5480
The same stalemate as the battlefield.
Bad news if communication isnāt possible.
the battlefield is not stalemated. the current lines are mostly stable. ukraine has between 12-20 bdeās it has been training and equipping that are not in the fight yet
Camp
5482
You try.
Nobody can force a negotiation.
Maybe some more war footage and peace protests will help expose the horror being funded.
Samm
5483
Again ā¦ Who is āyouā?
Idealism is admirable, but it does accomplish anything without someone taking charge. And on the world stage, there is no such person.
e7alr
5484
I havenāt seen any open source information mentioning 12-20 bdeās. I have recently seen reports of 8 brigades, roughly 40,000 troops. But they donāt have enough equipment for even that. And their Russian sourced artillery is running out of munitions and barrels. We now know that they are also almost out of missiles for their S300 systems. Those S300 systems make up over 80% of their high altitude ADA systems. Ukraine has been training troops, and they have been pushing a lot of them into units as replacements for casualties. When this offensive finally materializes, probably towards Melitopol, the Russian Air Force will be able to support the defense from outside of Ukrainian ADA range. And their fighters will be able to provide combat air patrol outside Ukrainian ADA range. Russian AWACs can operate 120 miles from the front and detect inbound Ukrainian aircraft an additional 250 miles on the Ukrainian side of the front. What is to be seen is how effective the Russian Air Force will be in the upcoming defense. They sucked trying to support the offensive at the start of this, but they took the majority of their losses from flying into ADA traps behind Ukrainian lines. They wonāt be operating in that environment this time. And they will be focusing on the point of the Ukrainian attack. The Russians are waiting in the prepared defense. And the Ukrainians have talked themselves into having to launch a counteroffensive, and launch it soon.
Camp
5486
I mentioned China since Biden has shown only an instinct to sell arms, not to publicly advocate for peace at every opportunity.
e7alr
5487
No, just pointing out that I havenāt seen reports in either the US, or foreign, press of 12-20 brigades. The other reality is that while Ukraine has inflected significant casualties on the Russians, Ukraine has taken about 2 casualties for every 3 they have inflected. They have had to supply a steady stream of replacements to the units on the front, especially in the fight at Bakhmut. The last Russian callup put about 250,000 actual troops into their ranks. They have probably taken 30,000 casualties in that time frame. That means there are probably 300,000+ Russian troops in their prepared defense. An effective offensive requires achieving 3:1 superiority at the point of attack. Ukraineās last counterattack was against disorganized Russian forces deployed in the hasty defense. That offense made gains, but ran out of steam quickly, and reality has shown that Ukraine didnāt have the combat power to keep going, or they would have. The next 8 weeks will be telling.
1 Like
Ukraine had the combat power, what they lacked was the will to pay the blood price and opted to allow Russia to withdraw instead of pressing their advantage. That decision has cost them. If they do the same again, their offensive will fail.
The information Iāve seen estimates between 60-100k troops for the offensive. 12-20 BDEās. And they d have the equipment for at least 12 mechanized. The rest would have tto be straight leg and likely be involved on follow on to defend areas taken. I have my doubts as to whether they have the will to do whatās necessary. If they play the stupid attack until one or two tanks get destroyed and then back down game again, they will fail.
Also the numbers Iāve seen would show they have enough S300ās to last until august, which will get them through the offensive. After thatā¦ meh?
e7alr
5489
The next 2 months will tell the tale. The longer they wait, the less likely they have the larger number, or the munitions. The Russians are going to keep up the shelling and probing attacks.
i think they got 2 maybe 3 weeks to get started. russia is at its weakest now. a month from now they can start plugging holes with conscripts again.
e7alr
5491
Its traditional military campaigning season now. Iāve seen reports that they are deploying TOR1s with their airborne units. They have been using their airborne as leg infantry. TOR1s would raise real havoc with troop concentrations in the defense. It doesnāt make sense to give TOR1s to them in the attack.
There was a curious denial from Newsweek about an alleged Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile attack that reportedly took out an underground command center in western Ukraine. The story has appeared in a Greek news outlet, but it has been ignored in Russian media as well as in US media except for āfact-checkingā denials.
According to Brazilian journalist and commentator Pepe Escobar, his contacts in Brussels quietly admit that a devastating attack occurred but canāt say that publicly. The Russian Ministry of Defense has refused to comment, and Russian media have been ordered to remain silent about the story. The Russian strike may have been in response to attacks on bases in Russia and other escalations from NATO. See video starting at 2:30:
For background here is a link to the Greek story mentioned in Newsweek.
Terrifying strike 130 meters underground by Russian hypersonic missile Kinzhal at NATO command center in Ukraine!
Dozens of NATO and Ukrainian officers killed
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Are we seeing tacit collusion between Washington and Moscow to avoid escalation of the war?
and yet they did, iin Bakmhut, in Avdivka in Kreminna and in Maryinka. Didnāt really make a difference to the outcome. In a defenseā¦ sure, they could. but they also have a max range with the TOS1A (the one with thermobarics) of 3500 Meters. A little good battlefield intel and they wonāt have any TOS1Aās left. They didnāt have a lot to begin with. Traditionally, they are deployed with NBC Units.
no, youāre seeing russian propaganda. but you knew that
Adam
5495
Also, thereās good footage of captured and destroyed TOS1ās that the Russians have already lost.
