Is China trying to distance itself from Russia?
From Jan 10 until today at several articles have appeared in major media indicating China is attempting to distance itself for Russia.
I note however, that last year when Russiaâs invasion was only a month or so old China made similar âdistancing gesturesâ and not much came of that.
I note especially the assertion by Chinese officials (bold below) that there exists a likelihood
- Russia will fail in Ukraine
- Russia could emerge for this failure as a âminor powerâ much diminished economically and diplomatically
That analysis matches well with recent reports about the sorry state of the Russian economy (lost 9% of its GDP and whatâs left is being eaten-away by 11-12% inflation.)
From the âmainâ article (1 below)
Jan 10, 2023
âDiplomatically, Beijing hopes it will not become a rival to every country in the west and nor does it wish to look isolated at multilateral fora,â says Yu Jie, a China expert at UK think-tank Chatham House.
âRussiaâs faltering military adventure in Ukraine has significantly reduced Beijingâs return on investment in its bilateral ties with Moscow.â
While Xi and Vladimir Putin, Russiaâs president, pledged last month to deepen bilateral ties, several Chinese officials in private conversations with the Financial Times strove to put clear daylight between Beijing and Moscow on the issue of Ukraine â a message that has been repeated to some European diplomats.
Some are scathing. âPutin is crazy,â says one Chinese official, who declined to be identified. âThe invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldnât simply follow Russia.â
Mistrust with Moscow
The starting point for Xiâs diplomatic reset is a re-evaluation in Beijing about the benefits of its close relationship with Moscow.
China now perceives a likelihood that Russia will fail to prevail against Ukraine and emerge from the conflict a âminor powerâ, much diminished economically and diplomatically on the world stage, according to Chinese officials.
In addition, for all the public professions of bilateral amity, in private some Chinese officials express at least a measure of mistrust towards Putin himself.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/china-seeks-distance-itself-putin-032300459.html
https://www.ksbw.com/article/china-quietly-distancing-itself-from-russia/39460799#