9661

omg… this is getting comical.

here’s what we learned over the last 7 months

the russian army is ■■■■
russian equipment is ■■■■
russian tactics are ■■■■
russian strategy is ■■■■

2 Likes
9662

I’m definitely watching the Lyman counter offensive with interest. It’s looking like the Russian position is collapsing.

9663

they started with 900K reservists and 200K active

9664

for all practicle purposes they are encircled. how much longer they hold out is anyones guess.

9665

And just like Russia, much of those reserves were on paper only. Both sides are throwing poorly trained recruits into battle and conscripting to fill the ranks. Russia’s advantage is a much larger population. They have over 40 million military age males. If 9 out of 10 refuse, but 1 in 10 volunteer, that is 4 million. 300,000 is less than 1% of their military age population. That is the situation. Not cheering, just pointing out reality.

9666

its part of reality. the other part being they can’t equip even the 300K they’re calling up.

ukraine has marginally better trained, better equipped, better lead and better motivated troops.

russia has more.

i know what side of the feba i’d want to be on.

9667

The German Army was marginally better trained, had better equipment and initially superior leadership along with very motivated troops. Superior numbers still overwhelmed them. And I expect Russia to move to turn the lights off in Ukraine. Power grids don’t stand up to precision fires very well, You don’t have to take out the plants, just the major transformer stations.

9668

has ukraine invaded russia? have they spent themselves on a siege of leningrad?

and russia doesn’t deliver precission fires very well. its not their schtick. their attacking the power grid is not some grand strategic move to prep the battlefield, its an act of desperation.

9669

It is strategic, rather than tactical, warfare. Taking out your enemies power grid inhibits their ability to sustain operations and function. The same with taking out fuel storage and key transportation infrastructure. It also undermines the civilian population’s will to continue the war. I suspect Putin thought he would get the country on the cheap and wanted to preserve these elements of key infrastructure. Any illusion of that should be gone now, and at some point he will go after these targets in force. Power plants are pretty big targets, so are major transformer arrays. Tank farms cover acres. The approaches to rail bridges and switching yards don’t stand up well to weapons fused to detonate subsurface. Seconds to disable, days to repair. The others are easy targets for cluster weapons. Add some willy pete to any attack on a tank farm and you have an instant inferno.

9670

you are talking about what i did in the army for 12 years, i am well aware of fire planning, priorities, strategy and tactics. i know what munitions will work best against a given target. i know the capabilities and ranges of the delivery systems, and i know the strategy and tactics of the enemy. there is absolutely nothing you can tell me about any of that.

the initial decision to attack dams was not a strategic decision, it was a desperate tactic to slow ukranian momentum. it worked, it bought the russians a little time around kherson. it was however temporary. knocking out parts of the grid now, does nothing for any russian possible offensive 2 months from now. everything they hit is repaired in days. when they start taking this infrastructure out as a means to prep the battlefield, it will be a prelude to attack, not a parting shot on their way out.

you read way too much into russian actions and give them way too much credit. you don’t prep the battlefield on the way out, you do it on the way in. the russian army is not our army. they do not have the capabilities we have. when you’re talking about fuzes I assume you’re talking artillery. russian artillery does not have the kind of accuracy needed for most of these missions, and their tactics and training would mean even if the guns could do it, they lack the expertise. perhaps they’ll change their tactics, but it should be painfully obvious by now that they do not mass fires, they use area fires. their artillery is effective only because they have so much of it.

two things strike me about the current war. the russians are attempting to make it an artillery duel, the ukranians are fighting with combined arms. that is the reason the ukranians are currently more successful. offensives can’t last forever, at some point the tempo has to slow, if for nothing else, to prepare for what’s next. there will be periods when an artillery duel is what this is. when that occurs; accuracy, speed, and mobility trump numbers. ukraine has shown remarkable ability in the counter battery war, russia has shown only WWII era capability. area fires and artillery, artillery, artillery, infantry will not work in this conflict.

2 Likes
9671

Shaping the battlefield is tactical warfare. The opposing force is the primary target of tactical warfare. Strategic warfare targets your enemy’s will and ability to sustain the war. So far the Russians have done little in the area of strategic warfare, and it has cost them dearly. They have ignored strategic mobility targets. They have failed to target Ukrainian’s fuel storage and distribution infrastructure. They left the Ukrainian rail system essentially untouched. They failed to concentrate their naval power in the Black Sea because they were thinking tactical instead of strategic. I would have plunged Ukraine into darkness, destroyed their telecommunications nods, taken out key rail and road structures. I would have turned every refinery and tank farm in the country into a flaming inferno. And I would have had Peter the Great, all 3 Slava class cruisers and all of the modern frigates and destroyers in the Black Sea. Not for a great naval battle with the navy Ukraine never had, but for their combined long range land attack capability. Once I had degraded these strategic targets I would have set about shaping the tactical battlefield. They are definitely not us.

9672

Apparently there is no time for training.
Draftees are being sent to the front with no formal training whatsoever.

9673

Jesus, lambs to the slaughter.

1 Like
9674

Apparently if he runs back he’ll be killed.

His only chances to live are are to hope untrained Russian shopkeepers will fight and win,
or run forward and defect.

9675

Results coming in. 96% of citizens in the occupied regions voted for annexation. Gunpoint democracy works. Glory to Russia!

9676

Just from a strategy perspective- wouldn’t like 70 % have been a better tally? You know- some percentage thats not insanely laughable?

1 Like
9677

But Comrade, it was only 96%. We allow dissent, da?

3 Likes
9678

Friday night is going to be an interesting night.

9679

What’s up with Friday?

9680

It got moved to 10/4.

1 Like