what happens when they’ve used up all the reservists?
Orygun
9642
Hes better as a political token. But if they’ve used up a million reservists, Russia as we know it won’t exist.
Once the ground freezes, equipment can freely move across the frozen fields. That will be true in northern and central Ukraine in normal winters. Both the Germans and the Soviets were able to launch winter offensives in WW2, and dry, cold weather favored advancing armies.
The current long-range forecast is for near-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal precipitation for most of Ukraine.
JayJay
9644
I don’t see anything in that map that suggests Ukraine will freeze this winter.
NJBob
9645
Funny thing about the weather, both the Russians and the Ukrainians will have the same advantages/disadvantages.
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russia has been free to move across the fields all summer, and they are, just not in the direction you wished.
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Here is the climate for Dnipro in central Ukraine. The average temperatures for December, January, and February are below freezing, which means that the ground normally freezes in winter. Frozen ground means that military vehicles can move relatively easily move across open fields.
In WW2, the weather in southern Russia and Ukraine was colder and drier than normal in January and February 1943, but year later it was unusually warm and wet. Soviet armies were able to move into eastern Ukraine in early 1943, but Soviet advance was bogged down in mud and slush a year later.
Funny thing is that Zelensky has said that the war has to end by the beginning of winter, but Putin has made no such statement.
Both Ukrainians and Russians fought through the winter in the Soviet Army. Is Zelensky saying that the Ukrainian Army has forgotten how to fight in cold weather?
NJBob
9649
How do you suppose the Russian reservists will fare?
Samm
9650
Russia has a population of 146 million. Of that number 48 million are males ages 15 - 64.
Surely they can survive using up a million Men.
The New York Times admits that there have been terrible Ukrainian casualties as a result of the recent offensives in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance under intense Russian artillery fire. The horrendous conditions are reminiscent of British experience in the Battle of the Somme in WWI.
See video starting at 12:00 for a commentary and excerpts from the article.
Here is a link to the full article.
Orygun
9652
Sure. Russia can survive. But the political ramifications of losing hundreds of thousands of Russian draftees would act like a seismic earthquake on Russian society. It already is leading to serious unrest in some areas of the country.
RTchoke
9653
This is getting ridiculous.
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Samm
9654
What makes you think the Russians remember how to fight in winter? 1943 was a long time ago, and most of the Russians who learned how to fight in winter either died on the battlefields or have died since.
And then there is this from your earlier post"
“In WW2, the weather in southern Russia and Ukraine was colder and drier than normal in January and February 1943, but year later it was unusually warm and wet. Soviet armies were able to move into eastern Ukraine in early 1943, but Soviet advance was bogged down in mud and slush a year later.”
What makes you think that it will get cold and dry enough (given global warming and all) to freeze the soft fields enough to operate their heavy tanks (which are much heavier than their 1943 T-34s) on them any better than they are right now? And then, of course, there is the mud … Rasputitsa!
Samm
9655
Your words were “Russia as we know it won’t exist.” Russia as we know it, is not dependent on Putin’s survival. Social and political upheaval in Russia for the last 115 years or so has been the norm.
Perhaps the Ukrainians realize that most of their rugged Soviet-era equipment has been destroyed, and they would be stuck trying to keep complex and high-maintenance NATO equipment running in the cold and mud.
The Russians have no such problem.
Samm
9657
The Ukrainians have been keeping up their inventory with captured Russian equipment. Last summer, Ukraine had more tanks and other armored vehicles than they started the war with in spite of losing much of their initial equipment in battles. Don’t know where they stand in that regard right now, but the fact that they have been able to launch offenses suggest they are doing okay in that trade off.
e7alr
9659
Actually it seems that they found a bunch of rugged soviet era equipment just sort of laying around recently. Probably enough for a brigade, or two. Was reading earlier how a Guards MRD was mauled covering the paniced retreat of a Guards Tank Army. The article pointed out that a Russian “army” formation is only about 20,000 troops and a division is only about 10,000. Seems Ukraine hit them with 12 brigades. This brings two things to mind. First the tactical deception was excellent, but how many reserves can Ukraine have left?
and in the real world, ukraine took back about 5 more villages around of lyman and another south of kupiansk.
