George Galloway is an RT regular and a Russian stooge.

Its Russian propoganda.

Western media ignored the war in Donbas from 2014 until the Russian intervention. The vast majority of the civilian casualties have been on the separatist side. Here is a UN report from 2021.

Here is a summary of the data from 2018 to 2021 from January 2022. Over 80% of the civilian casulties were on the Russian side.

Many of the dead have been children.

Western media claims that the Russian invasion was “totally unprovoked” is pure propaganda.

Starting to hear rumblings of the Russians taking the first steps to begin a second axis of advance, this time in the South towards Odessa. I suspect Ukraine shifted forces and logistics North in a futile attempt to hold the pocket. The Russian army kept constant skirmishing and artillery duels on going in the South, forcing them to consume logistics at a sustained pace while their resupply was diverted to trying to hold the pocket. Meanwhile the Northern Russian push is already moving on to the next line of objectives, where Ukraine has no where near the number of prepared fighting positions that were on the old, now overrun lines of defense. This means the Russian artillery will be even more effective against Ukrainian forces.

If the Russians are now opening a second offensive it will most likely overwhelm Ukraine’s logistics capability, which is already stretched thin. And they can’t shift forces back from the North to the Odessa region with the Northern Russian offensive ongoing.

Yes, the pace of war may change rapidly as the Russians completed the conquest of Donbass.

I see some parallels between the war in Ukraine and the end of the US Civil War. A key similarity is that Grant’s army and the Russian forces in Ukraine have concentrated on the destruction of the opposing army, not taking territory.

In the Civil War, Lee’s army was the core of the Confederate forces. They surrendered after a brutal war of attrition in Virginia. After they surrendered, the war was basically over. Theoretically an insurgency in areas of the South could have continued, but the men who were most committed to the cause had already died or had surrendered.

In Ukraine, the bulk of the most experienced and best equipped Ukrainian forces are in Donbass. That includes include Azov and paramilitaries. The destruction of these forces could result in a collapse of resistance in the rest of country.

Of course, a key difference may be that the South did not have a blank check for arms and supplies from foreign powers. Here is a link to a thread with similar comments:

Trenches in Virginia 1865:


Ukrainian trenches in Donbass 2022:

Everyone lies in war … it’s “the first casualty.” But the provocation by the Nationalist Ukrainian government of trying to de-Russian the Donbas was yesterdays news. Putin told everyone it was because Ukraine was going to join NATO. In fact, he cares nothing about helping the Russian Ukrainians, he simply wants the territory.

And it is an unfortunate artifact of war … women and children usually suffer the most. But pictures of dead and suffering children are also part of the propaganda … used by both sides.

The provocation from shelling by western-supported neo-Nazis and allied units went on for eight years. It was not news to Russians, but it was almost completely ignored in the western media.

A starting point for understanding Putin’s rational should be official statements from the Russian government. Here is what TASS reported in February:

On the morning of February 24, Russia officially launched a “special military operation” against Ukraine, designed, as Russian President Vladimir Putin explained, to “demilitarize” and “denazify” the neighboring state. The goal of the operation is to protect the people of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), he said.
Press review: Putin launches operation to denazify Ukraine and its economic implications - Press Review - TASS

Shelling of Donbass increased shortly before the Russian announcement. Most western media ignored that provocation.

Russian media reported that Kiev was massing large numbers of troops in Donbass in December 2021. The report was totally ignored in western media.

“According to some reports, the number of troops… in the conflict zone already reaches 125,000 people, and this, if anyone does not know, is half of the entire composition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," she said.
Half of Ukraine’s army has now been deployed to Donbass – Moscow — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

NATO membership was one of many provocations.

Motivations will have no impact on the situation on the ground right now. Putin’s motives are based on dreams of empire lost. Ukraine’s on hollow words from Western Leaders in the past. Neither will win or lose a battle/war. Now it is in the hands of the warriors, and the logistics tail that supports them.

That was a false flag. Ukraine was ineligible to join NATO as long as the Civil strife was going on in Donbas and that would have remained an impediment even if the Russians had quit supporting the Russian heritage Ukrainians in that region. And even if that was all settled, there was likely to be objections from some NATO members which would keep them out. The Ukrainian Nationalists are not the nice guys in this (there are none,) but the Russians have no businesses in that country except to take the territory and what they are doing to take that territory is much worse than what the Nationalists have been doing to subdue the Rebels.

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It is difficult to say what Putin’s ultimate motives are. His actions so far in Ukraine are consistent with the TASS announcement in February.

On the other hand, a CIA-funded think tank recently had a conference on plans to partition Russia. Senior officials in the Biden administration have said that that the US objective is to severely weaken Russia. The existential threats and provocations are obvious to Russians even if western media ignores and downplays them.

Regime change in Russia to give a pro-western puppet state is a western fantasy. At this point Putin is a relatively dovish voice in Moscow; it is likely that his eventual successor would be far more belligerent and/or even more closely allied with China.

The current situation reminds me of a scene from Fiddler on the Roof:

May God bless and keep Putin far away from us . . .

Here’s another " Just some guy on Youtube", doing much better analysis of the war than any main stream outlet.

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Lysychansk is gone and the Russian Army is now across the river in force and driving towards their next objectives. The Ukrainian lines appear to be collapsing as they attempt to get their forces out before they are trapped.

The next primary objective for the Northern push is the city of Bakhmut. This city is a transportation hub. Taking it cuts the roads and rail access into the pocket. As a transportation hub it will also be a significant logistics hub for Ukrainian forces. Taking it will not only cut off movement, but will likely result in the capture, or destruction, of a significant quantity of Ukrainian fuel, supplies and munitions.

Shelling is also increasing in the South, towards Odessa.

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Stand with Ukraine, but not too close. That is the NATO approach.

The fight-to-the-last-Ukrainian strategy is becoming more explicit.

Russian Official threatens to take Alaska
(It’s theirs. Just like Donbas)

Russians like to pull our chain. Here is a Russian video from 30 years ago joking about getting Alaska back:

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In view of their outstanding performance in Ukraine … good luck with that. :smirk:

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would alaska even need the other 49 states to repel the invasion? doubtful

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Yes, a Russian army of 200,000 is grinding down an entrenched, NATO-trained army of 600,000. Take that Putin!

Underestimating an opponent can be a deadly error. Overestimating an opponent can be wasteful and counterproductive. American analysts seem to alternate between the two extremes.

you forgot the exclamation point after Yes!

That’s a pop song from the 90s by a rock group. :joy:. I can’t stop laughing now