WAR in Ukraine, Putin approves initiation of special military operation (Part 1)

[margaretms2]

Have we talked much about this, generally?

Up until a month or so ago, the story was about Putin’s streamlined, modernized, refurbished military. How Putin Is Using Russia’s Military as a Tool for Foreign Policy - The New York Times

But given the levels of grift, corruption, inefficiency, and cronyism—why would the military be exempt, given the large amounts of money involved? This is the country that brought us Potemkin vlliages, after all.

[JayJay]

Didn’t they say this a week ago as well?

Not buying it.

[WuWei]

How miscalculations and misperceptions could lead to US-Russia conflict

[margaretms2]

@e7alr

@Supreme_War_Pig

@e7alr

He’s human. Like all humans he has a natural shelf life. As he is already in his 70s. He has already triggered what will be a massive military buildup in Europe. Germany will probably increase their armed forces to 5-6 heavy divisions. The rest of European NATO will do the same. We may well end up putting a heavy Corps back into Europe, probably in Poland. He is going to win in Ukraine because his forces over match theirs. He won’t over match a rearmed and wary NATO.

All of which means he failed. With this invasion, he has strengthened NATO’s resolve, their military posture, and parked himself next to an actual article 5 country.

No, it means he wins in Ukraine, but only goes further if foolish. Ukraine was left out on the table for Putin, like a dish of milk left on the back yard picnic table even though you could see and hear the stray cat outside. I don’t see his Western neighbors being so foolish in the near future. Putin isn’t the first aggressor to have world leaders miscalculate his intentions, and he won’t be the last. History repeats itself again, and again, and again.

No, it means he wins in Ukraine. What does that mean, though? How many troops would an occupation take? How much money are they going to spend at a time when their economy is crashing—a situation that will worsen? Likewise: think about all the ■■■■■■■ ■■■■■■ advice Putin is getting (that is, if he’s getting any at all). Do you want to give him bad news (that he might blame on you), or contradict him?

Also, I was thinking about this story, about Putin going to China for weapons/assistance.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-03-14/china-signals-disinterest-in-providing-weapons-to-russia-for-brutal-ukraine-campaign

Putin isn’t the first aggressor to have world leaders miscalculate his intentions. That’s such an odd lens to look through. We knew his intentions: the US was saying that Russia was going to invade Ukraine even when Putin denied it. His miscalculation seems much worse.

Put this in the context of an American President for a second: Strong Man Goes Begging for Help from Rival to Take Over Smaller Countryl; Gets Rejected. Even if China agrees, it reveals weakness and lack of forethought that simply wouldn’t be allowed a US president.

[JayJay]

Jake Tapper on CNN trying to draw us in too.

[CanadianJudo]

@JayJay

Jake Tapper on CNN trying to draw us in too.

If America want to go dancing into war they will do so alone.

[CanadianJudo]

@WuWei

How miscalculations and misperceptions could lead to US-Russia conflict | Fox News

NATO is a defensive agreement.
unless Russia attack NATO it wont lift a finger.
now Russia is getting close to attacking NATO but still yet to piss on our yard.

[conan]

Yeah…I’m having my doubts too. That’s no respect to E7. I just see Europe demanding more from America.

[conan]

That was Soviet Union…a communist government bent on expansionism.

[JayJay]

@CanadianJudo

@JayJay

Jake Tapper on CNN trying to draw us in too.

If America want to go dancing into war they will do so alone.

Sorry I meant to say James Clapper, not Jake Tapper.

Clapper was on the air saying “it’s just a matter of time” before Russia does something to draw us in.

[CanadianJudo]

@JayJay

@CanadianJudo

@JayJay

Jake Tapper on CNN trying to draw us in too.

If America want to go dancing into war they will do so alone.

Sorry I meant to say James Clapper, not Jake Tapper.

Clapper was on the air saying “it’s just a matter of time” before Russia does something to draw us in.

The red line exist.
if Russia is dumb enough to cross or not is the question.

[CanadianJudo]

@conan

Yeah…I’m having my doubts too. That’s no respect to E7. I just see Europe demanding more from America.

They are currently demanding F-35 fighter jets.

I would like to congratulate Russia and militarizing Germany again.

[Samm]

@conan

That was Soviet Union…a communist government bent on expansionism.

Don’t do that. The USSR and Russia were synonymous. The question was, were we at war when we and they did that?

[conan]

And they allowed us to use their airspace in our war with Afghanistan.

[Samm]

Not going to answer the question? Okay.

[conan]

That’s your problem…and every single Neo-can and interventionist that got us into this BS.

[Samm]

It’s not a problem. I simply asked a question which I asked only because Sneaky said we were already at war with Russia. Did you miss that part?

[Hexenbiest]

Until the next failed art student from Austria comes to power in Germany

[e7alr]

@margaretms2

@e7alr

@Supreme_War_Pig

@e7alr

He’s human. Like all humans he has a natural shelf life. As he is already in his 70s. He has already triggered what will be a massive military buildup in Europe. Germany will probably increase their armed forces to 5-6 heavy divisions. The rest of European NATO will do the same. We may well end up putting a heavy Corps back into Europe, probably in Poland. He is going to win in Ukraine because his forces over match theirs. He won’t over match a rearmed and wary NATO.

All of which means he failed. With this invasion, he has strengthened NATO’s resolve, their military posture, and parked himself next to an actual article 5 country.

No, it means he wins in Ukraine, but only goes further if foolish. Ukraine was left out on the table for Putin, like a dish of milk left on the back yard picnic table even though you could see and hear the stray cat outside. I don’t see his Western neighbors being so foolish in the near future. Putin isn’t the first aggressor to have world leaders miscalculate his intentions, and he won’t be the last. History repeats itself again, and again, and again.

No, it means he wins in Ukraine. What does that mean, though? How many troops would an occupation take? How much money are they going to spend at a time when their economy is crashing—a situation that will worsen? Likewise: think about all the ■■■■■■■ ■■■■■■ advice Putin is getting (that is, if he’s getting any at all). Do you want to give him bad news (that he might blame on you), or contradict him?

Also, I was thinking about this story, about Putin going to China for weapons/assistance.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-03-14/china-signals-disinterest-in-providing-weapons-to-russia-for-brutal-ukraine-campaign

Putin isn’t the first aggressor to have world leaders miscalculate his intentions. That’s such an odd lens to look through. We knew his intentions: the US was saying that Russia was going to invade Ukraine even when Putin denied it. His miscalculation seems much worse.

Put this in the context of an American President for a second: Strong Man Goes Begging for Help from Rival to Take Over Smaller Countryl; Gets Rejected. Even if China agrees, it reveals weakness and lack of forethought that simply wouldn’t be allowed a US president.

He wins in Ukraine means he is successful on the battlefield, destroys the Ukrainian armed forces, lays waste to their cities, scatters their citizens in terror, shaking their nation to it’s very core. He is waging total war, not limited war. Read Clausewitz’s volumes 2-5, you may come to understand.

There is nothing odd about using a historical lens to examine the lead up to the initiation of hostilities. Through out history national leaders have seen a storm brewing and were either unable, or unwilling, to properly assess the threat. As to our trumpeting about his tactical deception, all we did was bluster and issue softly worded statements, vainly hoping that US words, without any measurable actions would deter him.Ukraine wanted US Harpoon anti-ship missiles last summer. The Biden administration said no, and didn’t change their mind when they knew he was going to attack. If you wanted to achieve an actual battlefield and propoganda victory, sink a Slava class missle cruiser and a couple front line DDGs, and severely damage several more. That is an exploitable victory. Or provide our MLRS systems with 190 mile range ATACMS conventional guided missiles before hostilities begin. Secure Iron Dome point defenses for their air fields and significant military facilities. That system knocks down rockets and missiles in their terminal phase. The Russians have fired more than 900 missiles against targets in Ukraine in these 3 weeks. Yet we didn’t take any of these steps, Instead we watched his forces build for months and only talked.

The material support of China was hammered out before hostilities were initiated. Russia is the junior partner in the relationship and wouldn’t have attacked without the details of support already being agreed upon. The act of making a request is merely for show. And Putin, Russian and Ukraine are just a useful disruption of the West for Xi. And you are supposed to be smart enough to not project US cultural views onto non-US players.

[e7alr]

@Samm

@conan

That was Soviet Union…a communist government bent on expansionism.

Don’t do that. The USSR and Russia were synonymous. The question was, were we at war when we and they did that?

Yes, in a simmering cold war from 1946 to 1992. With plenty of flare ups into proxy wars over the period. The cold war ended from the fall of the Soviet Union, until Putin took power. Then it was on again. Actually in his mind it never ended.