WAR in Ukraine, Putin approves initiation of special military operation (Part 1)

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:09:48.300Z

Cratic3947:

Lincoln still ran in the 1864 election. When will Zelensky be up for re-election?

Camp · 2022-09-25T17:09:53.778Z

200 Ukrainian children went to summer camp in Russia.

While away the Ukraine military liberates town. Now jus how do those kids return to their family?

Sometimes you lose when you win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/kharkiv-summer-camp-children-missing/

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:12:41.040Z

Cratic3947:

Ukraine is not getting back the four regions that are having elections right now.

Ukraine has already retaken all parts of the Kharkiv region that Russia occupied and controls portions of Kherson, Zaporizhizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Ukraine is fighting to retake more of all of these regions as we speak.

Crimea is the only area completely under Russian control.

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:12:47.565Z

summer camp

yeah… riiight.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:14:29.507Z

This is what astonishes me the most. I just assumed in the beginning that Russia wold be able to have overwhelming air superiority.

WSJ

Ukraine Downs 12 Russian Aircraft, Boosting Battlefield Pressure on Moscow

Ukrainian air defenses dealt Russia’s Air Force some of its heaviest blows in months, shooting down four war planes and eight Iranian-made drones.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:16:54.152Z

“Catastrophic.” I assume that means an overwhelming conventional military response to even one nuke. Perhaps an attack on Russia itself.

…

“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program.

Yahoo News

U.S. warns Putin of 'catastrophic' consequences if nuclear weapons used in...

The United States would respond decisively to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and has spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences" it would face, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday. Sullivan's...

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:18:10.941Z

This seems smart. Keep it vague publicly but spell out exactly the response to the Kremlin.

…

Sullivan did not describe the nature of the planned U.S. response in his comments on Sunday but said the United States has privately to Moscow “spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean.” Sullivan said that the United States has been in frequent, direct contact with Russia, including during the last few days to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Putin’s actions and threats.

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:21:54.456Z

it is entirely stupid to get into this chest pounding game. you’d think brandon would have learned that in the lead up to the invasion .

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:22:32.248Z

Orygun:

spell out exactly the response to the Kremlin.

not smart.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:22:41.036Z

No- it needs to be spelled out to the Kremlin. They have to know the cost of lobbing a nuke. Otherwise they would think they can get away with it without consequence.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:22:54.406Z

Mmmm disagree but anyways…

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:23:38.377Z

no, its stupid to limit your response and telegraph it. entirely stupid.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:24:13.212Z

Looks like Hitler, I mean Putin, took off to Gelendzhik his own personal Versailles to escape the mob back at home. Those pics of his palace are insane. Puts the Eagles Nest to shame.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-escaped-secret-palace-forest-111040835.html

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:25:03.823Z

Agree to disagree. If a nation threatens nukes they have to understand that they cant get away with lobbing even one. North Korea are ya listening?

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:25:27.915Z

isn’t that what usually happens just before “house arrest”

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:25:55.286Z

Oooh I like your thinking.

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:27:08.639Z

they do understand that. that doesn’t mean you tell them what you’ll do about it in advance.

Orygun · 2022-09-25T17:29:18.685Z

Its a game of calculation. Who is bluffing? I assume that the US will threaten more than they actually might do in a real scenario.

Striker840 · 2022-09-25T17:32:07.385Z

Orygun:

Agree to disagree. If a nation threatens nukes they have to understand that they cant get away with lobbing even one. North Korea are ya listening?

Agreed, but as @Ben_Natuf said, don’t telegraph what the upper limit is. More along the lines of “If you launch a nuke, we(the western world) WILL respond.” And leave it at that. Not give details as to the level of response, but make it known it will NOT be proportional.

Ben_Natuf · 2022-09-25T17:33:56.325Z

best not to. if you say you’ll do it, you’d better do it.

its enough that they know there will be a response. they don’t need to know what it will be. let them guess.

if we tell them our response will be nuclear, we invite them to attack us with nukes
if we tell them our response will be overwhelming and certain conventional defeat, we invite them to attack us with nukes
if we tell them our response will be limited, we invite them to go ahead and do it
if we tell them our response will be diplomatic, we invite them to laugh