Charlie Cook released his updated ratings today. The article is behind a pay wall, but here are the updated ratings:
The current breakdown:
Solid D: 190 seats - Many of these are seats that should not be Solid D but have become so due to dud Republican candidates. For example, Stephanie Murphy in FL-7 should be a competitive seat, but Republicans have nothing there and Murphy is all but back for the next Congress already.
Likely D: 17 seats - 15 of these seats are currently Democratic, 2 are open but currently Republican, their incumbents having already abandoned any attempt to defend them. Most of these seats could be competitive, but again, poor recruiting and a bad cycle have left these seats pretty much out of reach. Pretty much zero chance Republicans win any of them.
Lean D: 14 seats - 12 of the seats are currently Democratic, 2 are open but currently Republican. Seats that should be more competitive than those above, but again, poor recruiting and a poor cycle. Probably a 10% chance at best that a Republican wins any of those seats.
Tossup D: 16 seats
Tossup R: 12 seats
Just before the outbreak, it was likely that Republicans were going to get a minor bounce back, picking up net seats, but still being a minority in the House. Most likely they would have done it by sweeping nearly all of the Democratic tossup seats, while losing only a couple of their own. However, it is increasingly looking like Democrats will hold most of their seats, while eating into a substantial number of the Republican tossup seats.
Most likely, Republican damage will be limited to those tossup seats and a Republican net loss of seats should be very modest, likely 5 to 8 seats.
Democratic SOLID, LIKELY and LEAN equal to 221, or 3 more than a majority. Even in a worst case scenario, Democrats still end with at least 230 seats.
As for other Republicans, there are 156 Solid, 16 Likely and 14 Lean, for a total of 186. Unlikely that Democrats will take any of those seats.
But the bottom line is that the Democrats are assured of control of the House of Representatives in the next Congress.
