United States House of Representatives race ratings (08/14/20)

Charlie Cook released his updated ratings today. The article is behind a pay wall, but here are the updated ratings:

The current breakdown:

Solid D: 190 seats - Many of these are seats that should not be Solid D but have become so due to dud Republican candidates. For example, Stephanie Murphy in FL-7 should be a competitive seat, but Republicans have nothing there and Murphy is all but back for the next Congress already.

Likely D: 17 seats - 15 of these seats are currently Democratic, 2 are open but currently Republican, their incumbents having already abandoned any attempt to defend them. Most of these seats could be competitive, but again, poor recruiting and a bad cycle have left these seats pretty much out of reach. Pretty much zero chance Republicans win any of them.

Lean D: 14 seats - 12 of the seats are currently Democratic, 2 are open but currently Republican. Seats that should be more competitive than those above, but again, poor recruiting and a poor cycle. Probably a 10% chance at best that a Republican wins any of those seats.

Tossup D: 16 seats

Tossup R: 12 seats

Just before the outbreak, it was likely that Republicans were going to get a minor bounce back, picking up net seats, but still being a minority in the House. Most likely they would have done it by sweeping nearly all of the Democratic tossup seats, while losing only a couple of their own. However, it is increasingly looking like Democrats will hold most of their seats, while eating into a substantial number of the Republican tossup seats.

Most likely, Republican damage will be limited to those tossup seats and a Republican net loss of seats should be very modest, likely 5 to 8 seats.

Democratic SOLID, LIKELY and LEAN equal to 221, or 3 more than a majority. Even in a worst case scenario, Democrats still end with at least 230 seats.

As for other Republicans, there are 156 Solid, 16 Likely and 14 Lean, for a total of 186. Unlikely that Democrats will take any of those seats.

But the bottom line is that the Democrats are assured of control of the House of Representatives in the next Congress.

Here’s hoping the numbers you sighted hold true!

On a side note: Your user name looks a whole lot like “Safale” which is a common yeast used in home brewing. So whenever I see one of your post I always think of beer.

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Safiel is actual a VERY rare given name.

Convenient as nick name for anonymous boards. :smile:

No particular meaning behind it.

There was actually NEVER any real chance for the Republicans to retake the House in this election cycle, but there was a chance for them to make a net gain of seats, which seems to be slipping away.

And it likely will get MUCH harder for Republicans to take the House starting with the election of 2022, to be conducted under the new apportionment/districting. They are not going to hav the legislative control in 2021/2022 that they had in 2011/2012 and thus will not have the ability to gerrymander to the extent they did 10 years ago.

I suspect that during the next decade, it will be possible for Republicans to retake the House, but only with very narrow majorities.

No possibility of a “Drive for 245.”

In a way, it’s kind of a shame. In 2016, they had a slate of 17 candidates with the majority of them being great candidates. They were beginning to become a more voter - friendly party. They had a real opportunity to shine.

Then Trump came along, and everything went to hell in a hand basket. They made the fateful decision to put him at the head of their party.

Now it’s time to pay the piper.

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Toss up.

You don’t get how much Trump is on his way out.
Which is cool.
Keep on hoping.
Anything can happen for sure.
But I don’t think so.
Film at eleven.