The Covid pandemic was a tremendous shock to global economies, and the US labor force is still showing the effects of historic employment losses, sudden shifts in consumer behavior, discombobulated supply chains, and efforts to return to a state of normality.
The employment recovery since 2021 has been historically robust, with the monthly job gains larger than anything seen on record.
January’s jobs report came with added complexity, because it included annual updates to populations estimates and revisions to employer survey data.
“Now we know both [2021 and 2022] had faster job growth than we previously realized,” said University of Michigan economists Betsey Stevenson and Benny Doctor in a statement Friday. “The patterns remain the same: Job growth accelerated in the second half of 2021 before slowing in the first half of 2022 and slowing further in the second half of 2022.”
The January reports also bring with them “seasonal noise,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US.
“I’m advising policymakers and clients to ignore the topline number [of 517,000],” he said, noting it’s likely a function of seasonal adjustments and a reflection of swings in hiring activity and traditional cutbacks that take place from mid-December to mid-January.
I agree with this, and not just “economies.” It will take some time to understand just how much The Gran Hysteria changed the world. At least a generation.
…only if Trump is POTUS, then the number of dead will be on every lib news source, every day and the media will tell everyone we’re all going to die and it’s all Trump’s fault.
I wonder if that is a fair comparison given how much more we now know about…well, everything versus 100 years ago. Think of it: virolgy, genetics, pharmocology, etc.
This said we usually see repossessions linked with high levels of unemployment, but the current high levels of employment make us think that we will not see high levels of repossessions in 2023.
If the unemployment numbers are accurate, then repossessions should decline? That’s the historical correlation. That said, I’m not buying it. The historically low labor participation rate is a key factor when attempting to examine the whole. Combine this with the current inflation and I don’t like what I think I’m seeing coming our way economically.