You said considerably more in that post than "his oligarch buddies may decide they’ve had enough.” The whole scenario you posted is the “long shot.”
Long shot? Its all happening right now.
Russian inflation is double digits
The Russian wealth fund is being depleted
Russia is running out of foreign reserves
Interest rates in Russia are 21%
Russia stocks of soviet era weapon systems is dwindling
The Ruble has collapsed and trading in it has been stopped.
which one of those things thats happening right now is a long shot?
Russians are used to bad times … they actually take pride in their perseverance. They aren’t going to depose of Putin over bad times caused by the war, but they might if he just quits and they feel it was all for naught.
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what a stupid statement.
Yeah, I agree. Being proud of one’s ability to endure suffering is stupid from our perspective.
it’s stupid because those oligarchs aren’t about to “endure suffering”. They live like kings, and Putin is costing them a lot of $$$. If the Russian economy continues to deteriorate, they will remove Putin.
I can tell you one thing this war is over when Trumps in office!
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Well, duh. The ones causing the suffering don’t endure it. I thought that was obvious.
UPDATE:
I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. --President-Elect Trump
Donald Trump's 2024 Person of the Year Interview Transcript | TIME
so what? he’ll agree with it fine b jan 20th. in fact he’ll probably remove any restrictions at all and say its ukraine’s responsibility and we have nothing to do with it.
and “we” aren’t doing amything
Given the accelerating Russian advance and the tiny number of ATACMs that are likely to remain in Ukraine, the whole question is quickly becoming moot.
I’m glad you have this faith that Trump will do what you want him to do. The writing is on the wall. And his own statements. He’s cutting off Ukraine as soon as he takes office. He doesn’t care about their security. He’ll say “I tried” and then no aid to Ukraine. Trump doesn’t do well in complex negotiations. He gets frustrated and stops caring.
Oh? What is Putin telling you now?
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there is no accelerating Russian advance.
what I want him to do? No, what he said he would do.
no he’s not, he’s already said he’s not.
Accelerating? You mean the Russian advance that is bogged down all along the lines as they throw dudes at machine gun fire and hope for the best?
Russia ain’t going nowhere fast. Its cripplingly slow.
I don’t think he will go that far. He’s already said he’s committed to continuing to arm them if Russia doesn’t agree to enter negotiations.
Whether he will hold up that bargain long term is anyone’s guess. But I don’t think it will be a day one cut off.
Even the BBC disagrees:
NATO policy has been to fight to the last Ukrainian, and they are nearly out Ukrainian men to send to the front lines.
The western front in WW1 was similar war of attrition that ended with 100 days of allied advances. Germany surrendered before the allies actually got into German territory because they knew that the war was lost. The next stop was Berlin if the war had continued.
He has also said if Ukraine refuses to negotiate he will cut them off.
