Yes, I will never understand that need to defend policies even when we knew from the beginning they would fail.
For now all the sanctions have supposedly been tailored to maximize damage to Russia while minimizing damage to the west. Things could rapidly change if Russia adopts its own sanctions on NATO. Europe’s winter could be cold, dark, and hungry if that happens.
Are you just making this stuff up?
Russia itself expects a massive contraction of its economy, best case is -8.8%.
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That’s a much better point than Russia is fairing better. You haven’t been arguing this point.
WuWei
84
I don’t think there was any thought given to that.
Perhaps people need to think through what retaliatory sanctions that maximize damage to the west would look like. That is a logical next step if NATO continues the economic war even after Russia has won on the ground.
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Yes, that was the news back at the end of April. Since then, the outlook has improved.
Meanwhile the economies in the west are starting to contract with record inflation that continues to accelerate. Carter-style stagflation is back.
“The average forecast among 18 analysts polled in late May suggested the Russian economy was on track to shrink by 7.6% this year”
“Now full-year inflation is expected to accelerate to 16.4%, up from 8.4% in 2021”
From your link.
It’s still a massive dose of economic pain.
To finish your quote “a presidential adviser said earlier in May”
So forecasts from Russian officials are to be taken as gospel, it seems.
Russians should be standing in breadlines and figuring out how to overthrow Putin by now based statements about the “nuclear option” sanctions from the west.
The fundamental problem has been that western governments have grossly overestimated the likely damage to Russia and generally ignored the likely effects of sanctions on their own economies.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
WuWei
91
How about England and the US?
What about them?
BTW, the one bit of the UK not contracting is Northern Ireland.
The bit still in the single market.
Brexit was a really stupid idea.
WuWei
93
Have you seen any predictions on them?
US to grow slower than the Euro area, UK to flat line, Russia to collapse.
This is what happens when your country fakes going green by only building things like windmills and solar farms while depending on other countries like Russia for your real power needs.
The sanctions are certainly not meeting the expectations of the Biden administration:
The Biden White House has vowed that as a result of these new sanctions, “Russia will very likely lose its status as a major economy, and it will continue a long descent into economic, financial, and technological isolation.” Meanwhile, on the political front, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CBS News in April that sanctions were meant “to make it harder for [Russia] to fuel their war machine,” and thereby overtime help “improve Ukraine’s position at the bargaining table and make an outcome of this war that Ukraine wants to see more likely . . .
More than three months after sanctions were imposed, life in Russia has a surprising air of normalcy. Following its initial plunge, the ruble has recovered all of its pre-war value and then some in recent weeks thanks to a combination of high global energy prices and the Russian government’s strict capital control measures. Some of the early signs of economic anxiety have also appeared to dissipate: Moscow’s restaurants, cafes, and bars are as packed as ever. Although grocery prices have noticeably increased, supermarkets are still fully stocked with a wide range of products, including foreign snacks. The biggest difference can be seen in shopping malls, where some Western-owned stores have closed their doors. Nevertheless, local and Asian brands are continuing to work as usual and appear to have a fair share of clients on any given day.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/are-sanctions-hurting-russia/
The effects of massive increases in food and energy prices are still moving through the western economies. It would not surprise me if Russia is in better shape than Britain a year from now.
