U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages

lulubee · 2018-06-13T16:50:26.526Z

Gaius:

Yeah the Schiller (CPI-adjusted) P/E is higher now than it was at the Crash of '29.

IOW, consumer inflation may be (only) 2.8%, but the stock market is inflated to dizzying heights.

Hey, what’s gonna happen when retirinh baby boomers start selling their stocks to fund their retirements?

I wrote this on a thread back in late April:

[quote=“lulubee, post:35, topic:336”] …my friend who owns a mergers and acquisition firm, and is also an economist, plus teaches a course at Harvard Business School. She told me everyone in the business (including her) have pulled out of the market and are in all cash because in the next 18-24 months there will be a huge crash (bigger than 2008.) It has to do with the huge gap between the S&P and what’s been bought on margin. Gap is many times bigger than it was in 1929, 2001 and 2008
[/quote]

I had asked her what we should do with all the extra cash we have now since we are no longer paying college tuition.

For now I’m sitting on it, but I haven’t sold anything in my investment accounts.

As for housing - it’s gone crazy where I live. Houses selling as soon as the go on the market and for way over asking. I’ve been here 28 years and I’ve never seen a market like this in upstate NY.

reflechissez · 2018-06-13T16:55:30.960Z

lulubee:

Gaius:

Yeah the Schiller (CPI-adjusted) P/E is higher now than it was at the Crash of '29.

IOW, consumer inflation may be (only) 2.8%, but the stock market is inflated to dizzying heights.

Hey, what’s gonna happen when retirinh baby boomers start selling their stocks to fund their retirements?

I wrote this on a thread back in late April:

[quote=“lulubee, post:35, topic:336”] …my friend who owns a mergers and acquisition firm, and is also an economist, plus teaches a course at Harvard Business School. She told me everyone in the business (including her) have pulled out of the market and are in all cash because in the next 18-24 months there will be a huge crash (bigger than 2008.) It has to do with the huge gap between the S&P and what’s been bought on margin. Gap is many times bigger than it was in 1929, 2001 and 2008

I had asked her what we should do with all the extra cash we have now since we are no longer paying college tuition.

For now I’m sitting on it, but I haven’t sold anything in my investment accounts.

As for housing - it’s gone crazy where I live. Houses selling as soon as the go on the market and for way over asking. I’ve been here 28 years and I’ve never seen a market like this in upstate NY.
[/quote]

I has at an HBS reunion in May, 2007 listening to a presentation by one of the investment management professors. among other things, he said this: 1) all the institutional real estate people he was talking with were terrified; 2) the only investment that nobody wants is cash.

Hellsbane · 2018-06-13T17:57:10.218Z

Perhaps we should encourage the fed to start pumping billions into the stock market again… ya know, just to make the economy look good…

biggestal99 · 2018-06-13T18:13:40.008Z

wiley8425:

You mean a stimulus? When did we get another one of those recently?

You are not serious, right.

You are pulling old Biggestal99’s leg.

you rascal, you actually had me for a minute there

Allan

Gaius · 2018-06-13T19:32:36.953Z

Historically the stock market has NEVER sustained stock prices this high with such (relative) low corporate earnings.

reflechissez · 2018-06-13T21:25:21.532Z

Gaius:

Historically the stock market has NEVER sustained stock prices this high with such (relative) low corporate earnings.

What are you using? price/earnings ratio? If so, that’s not an accurate statement.

Gaius · 2018-06-13T21:38:38.958Z

reflechissez:

Gaius:

Historically the stock market has NEVER sustained stock prices this high with such (relative) low corporate earnings.

What are you using? price/earnings ratio? If so, that’s not an accurate statement.

Shiller (CPI adjusted) P/E.

Although if we use the nominal P/E, I should concede that the market sustained this high a P/E once before. . . . for ten years . . . immediately before the market tanked on George W.s watch.

multpl.com

S&P 500 PE Ratio

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 20.46, a change of -0.15 from previous market close.

Gaius · 2018-06-13T21:39:10.702Z

multpl.com

Shiller PE Ratio

Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 28.79, a change of -0.21 from previous market close.

reflechissez · 2018-06-13T21:41:29.095Z

Gaius:

I should concede that the market sustained this high a P/E once before. . . . for ten years . . .

When did that happen?

Gaius · 2018-06-13T21:43:56.402Z

Look at the chart.

It hapoened right up until the crash on GW’s watch.

Capture%20_2018-06-13-17-42-44720×1199 63.2 KB

reflechissez · 2018-06-13T21:55:29.308Z

The PE was not that high for 10 years. It went p and down like it always does.

Gaius · 2018-06-14T00:11:00.976Z

Pretty close to ten. Just look at the chart.

Gaius · 2018-06-14T00:13:47.100Z

I don’t need to remind you that
a. it ended badly and
b. the shiller p/e never sustained current levels.
c. as people (the baby boomers) retire odds are they tend to take their money OUT of the matket.

ImRightYoureWrong · 2018-06-14T00:40:36.225Z

Savings interest rates have been rising too I’ve noticed in my accpunt

reflechissez · 2018-06-14T01:31:43.806Z

Gaius:

Pretty close to ten. Just look at the chart.

which 10-year span are you talking about?

reflechissez · 2018-06-14T01:36:46.599Z

Gaius:

I don’t need to remind you that
a. it ended badly and
b. the shiller p/e never sustained current levels.
c. as people (the baby boomers) retire odds are they tend to take their money OUT of the matket.

the baby boomers span 18 years. They’re not going to be pulling their funds out on the same day. There are millions of people behind them, including the millennials which is bigger than the boomers.

WuWei · 2021-12-12T01:10:45.527Z

fredgraph

Highest since 1975

SixFoot · 2021-12-12T01:16:09.188Z

No, no, no! (R)ecessions only matter when things aren’t (D)ifferent!

Call_me_Ishmael · 2021-12-12T06:42:48.896Z

Bad year to retire. My pension is fixed. But I had to. 2020 burned me out. Mentally I’m gone.

Guvnah · 2021-12-12T17:14:53.534Z

WuWei:

Highest since 1975

Interesting to note that this thread was started years ago over the blue-circled blip as some sort of veiled gotcha during the Trump presidency.

It’s also interesting to note that the longed-for wage increases came, and are now being eaten up by real inflation.

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