U.S. Farm-Export Prices Drop Most Since 2011

Drs · 2018-08-14T18:18:03.819Z

So farmers and businesses should go bankrupt and loss of future contracts are good.

Grain farmers are already saying this Jimmy Carter all over again.

conan · 2018-08-14T18:19:43.930Z

Yes…have you been paying attention to their bumper crop this year…also massive increase of soybean planting next year.

SAO PAULO, Brazil (DTN) – Brazilian farmers are finishing their soybean harvesting, with 71% done nationally. Mato Grosso farmers almost finished their fieldwork, completing 99% of their soybean harvest by last week while, in the south, Rio Grande do Sul farmers have cut just 25% of their beans.

“We finished our harvesting weeks ago with a very good yield,” said Ricardo Arioli Silva. “Most of the farmers in our state see a 5% to 10% higher yield compared to last year, others may be even higher.” Silva farms more than 2,000 hectares (about 5,000 acres) of land with his brother in Campo Novo do Parecis in Mato Grosso. He claims his yield is 15% higher than last year.

Notice the date on this article. April 6 2018

DTN Progressive Farmer

Brazil Soy Harvest Nearly Done

More than 70% of the soybean harvest is done in Brazil, ranging from 99% complete in Mato Grosso to 25% cut in Rio Grande do Sul.

dantes · 2018-08-14T18:30:46.101Z

I know you’re desperate to find some reason to blame other than tariffs, but no one else is buying it.

They’re eating our lunch.

Snow96 · 2018-08-14T18:32:14.271Z

Don’t know if they will or won’t. Farmers Might find a new buyer (since china is buying from someone else now, the people they were supplying will be looking for the product).

Just have to wait and see how it plays out. In the long run if we can get tarrif’s on are products we export reduced, and get china to crack down on theft of intelectual property it will pay huge dividends.

conan · 2018-08-14T18:33:15.523Z

Are you denying South America bumper crop this year isn’t effecting prices?

conan · 2018-08-14T18:35:18.111Z

Exactly. Funny how commodities work.

Drs · 2018-08-14T18:38:02.746Z

Alot of these tariffs are retaliatory tariffs.

As I posted in the trade war thread even the heritage foundation showed there was mechanisms for addressing grievances that have not been used without damaging American farms and businesses.

dantes · 2018-08-14T18:38:14.845Z

A better question is whether the bumper crop is affecting prices in South America. China is paying Brazil 20% more per ton of soybeans than they pay us.

Are you denying that tariffs aren’t affecting the profitability of US farmers?

conan · 2018-08-14T18:42:06.583Z

Funny how you avoided answering my question.

In 2011 you said they had bumper crop yield for price drop.

I pointed out that they had bumper year again this year and you ignored it.

Why?

Is their a point you’re trying to make? Crops is a commodity. Do you understand what is a commodity?

Drs · 2018-08-14T18:42:27.438Z

Not to the extent that the tariffs are affecting prices.

South American traders are getting great prices. They are also buying the soybeans from US farmers for a low price.

conan · 2018-08-14T18:44:10.589Z

Things level itself out…except China is ending up paying more.

dantes · 2018-08-14T18:51:25.024Z

I don’t know the answer and I think it’s the wrong question for the situation. If you do have answer, please share it.

There is a large price spread between US and South American soy beans. If the drop in US prices were because of a bumper crop in South America, then you’d expect the price in South America to drop at the same time. That’s not necessarily guaranteed to happen since just a few months ago, South American export prices were substantially higher than US export prices. I don’t know if export prices have dropped in South America. The most recent month of data I can find is May 2018.

conan · 2018-08-14T19:00:07.181Z

It means China is willing to pay more to punish United States for their soybeans.

dantes · 2018-08-14T19:03:50.748Z

conan:

It means China is willing to pay more to punish United States for their soybeans.

Yeah, no kidding. It’s also exactly what I said would happen.

Drs · 2018-08-14T19:44:45.790Z

It means China was not going to be bullied. Trump is trying to bully countries like they are a contractor desperate for money.

conan · 2018-08-14T19:47:56.317Z

Or maybe China doesn’t fully understand capitalism.

dantes · 2018-08-14T19:49:25.345Z

Do we understand capitalism? Because we are doing the exact same thing.

Drs · 2018-08-14T19:54:00.769Z

USGI

Resource Listing | USGI

Jezcoe · 2018-08-14T19:55:53.875Z

dantes:

Do we understand capitalism? Because we are doing the exact same thing.

Maybe they don’t. Capitalism is inherently about the short term.

China seems to be thinking in the long term.

Chris · 2018-08-14T20:21:16.169Z

The only good thing about these tariffs is that it can help the Democrats take back control of the House this November.