Turkey continues to block NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Turkey has labeled as terrorist states and has demanded the extradition of Swedish and Finish Kurds for trials related to terrorism charges. Turkey is also demanding an end to NATO arms sanctions.
Turkey also expects the extradition of 28 “terrorism” suspects from Sweden and 12 from Finland, Kalin said, adding that there was “no legal or judicial basis” not to extradite them. Turkish state media had previously said Turkey demanded the extradition of 33 suspects from the two countries . . . The demands also called for the lifting of arms sanctions against Turkey and global cooperation against terrorism.
Turkey continues to ignore western sanctions against Russia.
Turkey is also targeting Greece and is accelerating operations in Syria.
Is Turkey overplaying its hand?
Or does Turkey’s control over access to the Black Sea and the fact that Turkey has the largest NATO army on the European side of the Atlantic mean that it is free to pursue its own interests?
It looks like Turkey is serving crow at the US State Department and in Brussels:
“Just imagine in however many months going from a NATO alliance that is 30 to 32 members strong,” another senior State Department official told reporters following the foreign ministerial in Brussels. “How this can be anything but a massive strategic blunder for Putin? That was a topic of conversation and multiple sessions over the past couple of days.” https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/08/politics/finland-sweden-nato-membership/index.html
At what point will the US quietly drop NATO membership for Sweden and Finland and ignore its “massive strategic blunder”?
Yes, NATO membership for Finland and Sweden is more sizzle than steak.
On the other hand, the State Department hyped the addition of Finland and Sweden as massive strategic blunder for Putin. By their own logic, the failure to get them into NATO is a massive strategic blunder for the US.
Its not a strategic blunder at all. At worst its a failure of the State Department to convince Turkey to rescind its objections and yes therefore a failure of Biden and his administration.
I am sure there are a lot of discussions going on. Probably Turkey ends up getting some sweetheart deal to remove their objectiosn.
Erdogan will hold out for concessions, they’ll throw him some bone while denying his actual demands and then he’ll change his mind. European politics don’t really change much.
So wait suddenly there’s this big concern that Turkey is playing its own game, occupying Kurdish areas in Syria, and wanting the Kurdish question settled?
This after Trump essentially abandoned the Kurds to the Turks?
When are we supposed to care about the Kurds and when are we not supposed to?
Elections are next June a year from now. Erdogan will likely play this card all the way till then and will likely get some concessions to bolster his election chances.
In the meantime, Finland and Sweden are de facto in NATO now as they have already formed a defensive pact with the UK and are protected by the EUs mutual defense clause.
I doubt that NATO membership has been the deciding factor.
The Soviet Union ended in 1991; the Baltic countries did not join NATO until 2004. Russia had a chance to invade without NATO protection, but it did not.
NATO has virtually zero forces in the Baltic states. Russia sees no threat from the Baltics, so there is no reason to invade.
NATO has worked well as a way to check Russia’s militaristic aims for more than 70 years. Russia has proved the need for NATO by invading Ukraine. I’m pretty sure if you ask anyone in the Baltic States if they are glad they are in NATO you will get an enthusiastic yes.
There is no need to station military there as any attack on the Baltics would lead to a full reply by all 30 NATO nations.
