Trump's Ohio suburb slide signals peril in industrial north

The article mentions Cumberland County, Pennsylvania. Cumberland County is on the other side of the Susquehanna River from Harrisburg. It has been a Republican stronghold since the Civil War and has not been carried by a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1964. I am quite familiar with it as my older son lives there and several of my relatives live there.

The east end of the county forms part of the Harrisburg metropolitan area, while the central portion and western portion are heavily rural.

Trump carried Cumberland County easily in 2016. But just 2 years later, Tom Wolf carried the county for Democrats in the Governor’s race. The Republican Senate candidate in 2018 carried Cumberland County, but at a far reduced margin from Trump in 2016.

Biden does not need to carry Cumberland County. He merely needs to reduce the margin from that of 2016. Just a few thousand vote swing in Cumberland County and other suburban counties is all he needs to carry Pennsylvania.

And as the linked article says, Trump is losing the battle in the suburbs. Small town America and Rural America can only provide so many votes. If he can’t dig up voters in the suburbs, he is not going to win.

People are weary of his clowning nonsense.

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It’s was trump 56 Clinton 38 in 2016

Methinks the burbs will be a different case this time around

Allan

Assuming you are referring to Cumberland County, since that is the correct percentage. :smile:

I think Trump splits the difference in Cumberland County and carries it with 50% to 52% of the vote, which will NOT be near enough margin to carry Pennsylvania as a whole.

the marginal amount he loses in the burbs may be made up by the marginal amount he gains from hispanics and blacks

Mod Note

Knock off the personal stuff.

Seems like the AP news report here is hoping their readers to make something concerning coming from the mouth of this little known local politician?

Most are well aware that Trump is in Ohio tonight and PA two times this week alone.

And per Ballotpedia state senator can not even run again in Ohio District 6 again because she is maxed out on term limits.

Also below is a little more of the details on Ms. Lehner herself:

Peggy Lehner (b. August 5, 1950) is a Republican member of the Ohio State Senate, representing District 6. She was first appointed to the chamber in January 2011, to replace Jon Husted ®, who was elected to secretary of state in November 2010.

Lehner served in the Ohio House of Representatives, representing District 37 from 2009 to 2011. She also served in the state Senate in 2008. Lehner previously served as councilwoman of Kettering, Ohio, from 1998 to 2008, and as vice-mayor from 2004 to 2006.[1]

Hillary’s going to win…I just know it. The polls all say it. 97% chance she’ll be in the WH. Oh wait… :sunglasses:

That’s right across the River from me. I play golf with a bunch of guys who live in that area.

At this point in the race in 2016 the polls at 538 had her with a 57% chance at winning and Trump with a 43% chance at winning.

Yeah…I know…how much…you don’t know. :sunglasses:

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ‘more than 99% chance’ of winning election over Donald Trump

Saturday 05 November 2016

Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation

HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes

Democrats stand a strong chance of taking control of the Senate as well.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94

I wish people understood statistics.

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I just wish you understood…period. :sunglasses:

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The dems remind me of that old Dusty Springfield song…Wishing and Hoping. :grin:

Trump won Ohio by about 9 pts last time. He will win it again.

The feeling is mutual.

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As I have stated MANY times.

The polling methology in 2016 was erroneous, as educated whites were oversampled and uneducated whites were undersampled.

That error has been corrected.

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By oversampling dems. Lol.

DEMs and Independents outnumber GOP. So one would expect more in the samples.

But of course DEMs isn’t what he said, he said educated v. non-educated whites.

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.WW, PSHS

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Peggy Lehner was bit one person cited in the article.

If you don’t know what oversampling is and why it is done, and how poll data is normalized to make sure oversampling doesn’t bias the whole poll…you really ought not talk about it.

But that would entail understanding statistics…much easier to get cues from talk media.