Trump denies hurricane killed 3k in puerto rico


#468

storm surge is calculated by how far inland the water moves and knowing the elevation and by buoys that measure it exactly.


#469

So when the storm surge is 13 feet, it is 13 feet above what?


#470

The report asserts nothing about the relief effort. It produces an estimate of all-cause excess mortality attributed to the hurricane. Cause of death on an individual basis is not necessary to produce an accurate estimate. Such factors are baked into the expected aggregate baseline mortality rate produced by historical data from the past 7 years.


#471

above normal average sea level.


#472

That includes the relief effort during the post hurricane period.


#473

ok, now you’re almost on to something.

What’s another word for “normal average sea level”?

How about baseline?

So a storm surge is measured as the increase in sea level over the baseline.

Now what’s the baseline for all deaths in Peurto Rico from 2010 to 2017?

How much did this baseline death rate increase in the wake of the hurricane?


#474

The storm surge is actually measurable and the cause clearly defined.

Neither the causes nor manner of deaths have been considered nor has there been any relationship established between them and the storm.

If you are murdered walking to the store it cannot be attributed to the storm. if you commit suicide because you can’t find you wife, girlfriend, or kids that cannot be attributed to the storm.

If you died because you tripped and fell on the way to the store that cannot be attributed to the storm.


#475

you were so close, and now you’re so far.

Here’s the study. The methods section starts at page 4. Have a good one.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/16X9qtnPaD--2dPhpcwu7S53esafH59i9/preview


#476

No point, he doesn’t understand statistics.


#477

Cite your data. i’m not going back through 69 pages on an Easter egg hunt.


#478

Answer the very simple questions asked above if you can or are you going to again claim that means and manner of death don’t matter?


#479

No absolutely do not matter when it comes to producing an accurate estimate of excess all-cause mortality rates. That’s how statistics works. You don’t have to dive down in to individual cases. That’s kind of the point of statistics.


#480

You were saying.


#481

Given that there was a 22+% spike in mortality in the months immediately following a major hurricane, with a high statistical confidence level, what alternative causation would you suggest could be responsible?


#482

A murder spree, of course.


#483

So are you suggesting that there was a spike of almost 3000 deaths from murders, suicides, and trips/falls that just happened to occur in the wake of a major hurricane, with no connection to it?


#484

Mudslide…not hurricane.


#485

You think a mudslide is the same as a hurricane?! SAD!


#486

#487

I literally said “Methods are on page 4”. Are you so dead set on being wrong that you couldn’t click on a link and scroll to the ■■■■■■■ indicated page?

Goodness, I’d be ashamed to be this pigheaded about something.