Yes - and it’s fairly easy to see that Trump did actually have a chance to win - narrowly - by the graphic from 2016. There is a much larger spread in 2020.
CEC pundits love to downplay the importance of independents and moderates, but there is no doubt Trump can’t win without a sizeable percentage of them.
And he is alienating them left and right (pun intended).
This is exactly correct. And he has been trending underwater with them for some time now. If he does not right this ship soon, then his fate may well be sealed.
And to preempt the inevitable, Trump did reach out with his “what do you have to lose trying something new?” malarkey, as well as by lying and pretending to be pro-LGBT, pro-union and pro-black.
Man at this rate the posters who have been positioning themselves for years to act like they never supported Trump if he lost are gonna be doing it before the election.
I do actually sort of believe him when he talks about good internal polling. In 2012, Republicans were full of ■■■■ when they talked about “undersampling” and “overskewed” polling that favored Obama. After 2016 though, seems that there may actually be something to this.
I think most Trump supporters, underestimate how many votes that Trump got from moderates and Independents, not because of Hillary’s policies, but because they didn’t like Hillary the person. These people do not have the same dislike of Biden.