“The Labor Department’s revised job count lowered the April 2018 to March 2019 by 501,000. Assuming that the almost 42,000 per month lower number is spread evenly across the 12 months, Trump’s 2018 total of 2.303 million jobs falls short of Obama’s 2014 to 2016 results and essentially matches his 2.302 million for 2013. And 2018 was helped by Trump’s tax cut sugar high.”
Traditionally 4% is considered to be “full employment”.
The UE rate has fallen by about a quarter during Trump’s first 3 years.
Also consider the factors such as 3 of the worst hurricanes in history happening during the first couple of years of Trump’s tenure as well as the expected fallout from the trade war keeping growth down.
It’s that it’s not appreciably better than what Obama has done.
And “opening new markets and industries”…isn’t that what tax cuts are supposed to do? Because they “free up money for new investment”?
And yet there has been no surge in new investment…even when supposedly being “goosed” by the tax cuts.
Finally, the reason “full unemployment rate” has been able to go further and further down has nothing to do with Trump policies. It has to do with the Fed changing away from its long-held goal of keeping inflation in check and moving more towards trying to spur investment.
Lowering interest rates is a Keynsian stimulus not a supply side stimulus.
Picture a pyramid…is there more square footage at the top or the bottom? Now figure that this space holds job openings. Do you think it’s easier to find new employees at the top…or the bottom? Answer that and “we” can all understand why more jobs were created under President Obama.
Let everyone understand, IMO…President Obama was handed a pile of economic dung…and he turned it around. It could have gotten much worse but his quick responses stopped the damage and slowly turned everything around. I was there…on the front line…and am very appreciative.
Finally, the reason “full unemployment rate” has been able to go further and further down has nothing to do with Trump policies. It has to do with the Fed changing away from its long-held goal of keeping inflation in check and moving more towards trying to spur investment.
Fed policy hasn’t changed, they actually raised rates out of a fear of inflation. Only once that inflation never materialized did they start bringing rates back down.
I’m sorry if that example was over your head? Let me make this even easier…put a 0% unemployment at the top and a 100% unemployment at the very bottom. Notice…it has nothing to do with what a job pays? Did you? Alrighty then…are there more potential jobs to be had at the bottom…or the top of this unemployment pyramid?
Politically, Trump will benefit. No doubt about that.
Realistically, Presidents get far too much credit…and blame…for changes in the economy.
George HW Bush was dumped from office on one of the smallest post-war downturns the country ever went through…which was already over before the 1992 election.