Polls are notoriously unreliable more than a year before a Presidential election; but actual votes cast can tell an important story.
On Tuesday, Republican Paul Melotnick beat Democrat Bob Tatterson in a special election for Wisconsin’s 24th AD by 7 points. That sounds like good news for Republicans, but this is a district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2020 and the Republicans carried by 13 points in the 2022 gubernatorial election, so Democrats are quietly pleased with this sign of erosion of Republican support
In Special Elections held since this year, Democratic candidates are running 7 points ahead of Biden in 2020 and 11 points ahead of Clinton in 2016. Coming back to Wisconsin, in the recent Supreme Court election, the openly pro-abortion Democratic candidate won by 11 points in a state that Biden carried by less than 1.
These numbers could be a wake-up call about message or strategy. Is it time for some shift in approach?
